It’s official, Kennedy and Maness enter Senate race
1st February 2016 · 0 Comments
By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Writer
Louisiana Treasurer John Kennedy formally threw his hat in the ring last Tuesday to succeed the outgoing U.S. Sen. David Vitter, as did retired Air Force Colonel and 2014 U.S. Senate candidate Rob Maness late Wednesday evening.
The two join three GOP Congressmen already on the trail, Rep. Charles Boustany, Rep. John Fleming, and former Rep. Joseph Cao. Considering how crowded the GOP field may become, core constituencies could count for a lot in this race. To that end, Maness has painted himself often as Tea Party candidate, relying on hard base of ideological electors to get him to the threshold of a runoff.
Most of the other Republican contenders, lacking such right-wing loyalty, are making geographic appeals, arguing that their part of the state needs a US Senator to answer regional concerns. This is a problem for Kennedy, despite his statewide victories. He does not enjoy a native son constituency in either metro Baton Rouge or in his current home in St. Tammany.
Therefore, the Zachary, La. reared-Treasurer, who has tried to re-craft himself recently as New Orleans metro candidate—and as a Washington outsider—may have a problem. Especially if former GOP Jefferson Parish President and Lt. Gov. candidate John Young, who outpolled three gubernatorial candidates last year, decides in favor of a U.S. Senate bid. It would be hard for Kennedy, thrice a Senate candidate, to frame himself as the main mainstream DC outsider if Young were in the race, and the former Parish President’s strength of the metro would far out shine Kennedy, or any of the other four announced candidates.
In a statement announcing his Senatorial candidacy, Treasurer Kennedy explained, “The reason [I run] is pretty simple: I want my country back. I’m scared we are losing it.”
Kennedy made very similar comments in 2004, running for U.S. Senate as a moderately liberal Democrat. He lost that race to David Vitter, and after switching parties to the GOP, lost to Mary Landrieu in 2008.
He has consistently won the Treasurer’s office overwhelmingly, garnering 80 percent of the vote last year. Less than 24 hours after he announced, Kennedy telegraphed what electoral strategy he will use to differentiate himself against his more federally minded opponents.
Kennedy needs all the help he can get, as he launches his bid at something of a financial disadvantage to his congressional opponents. While Boustany and Fleming were able to raise millions for their House campaigns and simply transfer it all into their Senate war chests, Kennedy needs to start his fundraising from scratch.
Kennedy also would not have the varied contributor base that another potential candidate proved last year that he could garner. In an interview on Wednesday with The Louisiana Weekly, from Jefferson Parish President John Young said, “I’m still strongly considering the US Senate race. The response has been very encouraging from potential supporters.”
Noting that he has no intention of making a final decision for several weeks, Young left unspoken that the encouragement he has received comes growing anxiety amongst many metro area political insiders that New Orleans has lost influence in Washington. Having one of their own as a contender might be enough to not only fund John Young’s campaign needs, but also underwrite a SuperPAC that would allow him to catch up in the fundraising battle quite quickly.
Young would enter the 2016 Senate race with some credibility. He earned more votes in October then David Vitter, Jay Dardenne, or Scott Angelle managed despite each having won statewide office previously, or having run from districts far larger than Young’s own Jefferson Parish. Making the runoff would simply entail the former Parish President asking voters who cast a ballot for him last year to do so again in 2016. With the GOP field so divided, it would take less of a percentage of the electorate for Young to make a runoff in the Senate race than it did for his narrow edging out at the hands of Billy Nungesser.
Kennedy has tried to avoid the prospect of a Republican New Orleans metropolitan rival. Several years ago, he moved to St. Tammany Parish, and tried to establish himself in the local political consciousness. While Kennedy’s metro organizing efforts have not hurt him statewide, there is little evidence that locals think of the Treasurer as a New Orleans candidate – the way they would Young, a former Regional Planning Commission Chair as well as Parish leader. With the other current well-funded congressional contenders not hailing with the New Orleans area, Crescent City voters are still shopping for a standard-bearer.
To make the GOP field even more crowded Metro New Orleans Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta has formed an Exploratory Commit-tee to raise money for a potential bid. Skrmetta has proven he can rake in the bucks, and his current office provides a certain degree of local voter familiarity.
With the race still in flux, a front runner remains unclear. A SurveyUSA poll for Louisiana Proud did show Kennedy with higher positive name recognition than his opponents, yet it failed to include Young as a potential candidate. Nevertheless, Kennedy is very likely to be the only candidate on either side who has ever held statewide office, which could give him a leg up on his foes.
As a former Democrat, who actually ran for the U.S. Senate in 2004 as a Democrat, Kennedy has hoped for some of the crossover vote he has earned in his Treasurer’s bids. A strong Democratic contender could stop that from happening.
Unfortunately for Kennedy, Energy businessman Josh Pellerin has said he is “99.9 percent confident” he will enter the contest. Moreover, Pellerin, who hails from the Lafayette area, is a moderate in the John Bel Edwards fashion.
Pellerin characterizes himself “pro-life, pro-gun,” though he said he believes in the Democratic Party on “health care, job creation and taking care of veterans.” The Franklin Parish native, who founded and owns the Pellerin Energy Group, has the potential to self finance. As a candidate, reportedly, he plans to emphasize his business background.
Pellerin would also run a very geographically base race in Acadiana against Charles Boustany, due to the Lafayette Republican’s support of U.S. Sen. David Vitter, R-Metairie, in the 2015 governor’s race over native son Scott Angelle. Pellerin said Boustany’s endorsement was poorly received in Acadiana and would not be forgotten this year. Angelle is expected to run for Boustany’s House seat in 2016.
So far Congressman John Fleming is the only candidate not to have someone challenging his geographic base of North Louisiana, but that may change soon. Former Congressional candidate and “Duck Dynasty” cousin Zach Dasher and former U.S. Representative and 2015 state Senate candidate Vance McAllister both have expressed interest in a bid.
This article originally published in the February 1, 2016 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.
