GOP delegate says what would happen at brokered convention
21st March 2016 · 0 Comments
By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Writer
Despite the New York billionaire’s recent slew of victories, a senior La. Republican argues that Donald Trump will not be the GOP nominee — if he fails to win the required 1,237 delegates prior to the Republican National Convention in Cleveland this summer.
But only Ted Cruz will be the beneficiary, and no one else.
“Most Republicans don’t understand Rule 40B,” explained George White. “And it’s why Trump will not be the Republican nominee…and the only candidate eligible to pick up those uncommitted votes is Ted Cruz.”
White, a former Lobbyist for Avondale Shipyards and a delegate or alternate to every GOP convention since 1988, noted to this newspaper, “The Convention has few permanent rules, and the 2016 convention can adopt their own rules, but they start from the current rules—one of which is Rule 40B. It requires any candidate to enter nomination to have a majority [of the vote] in at least eight states.”
What that means, White continued, only the delegate count for candidates who have won eight states can be tallied on the first ballot. “Trump has met that requirement, but Cruz is only about hallway, and Kasich does not have any chance of meeting that,” said White.
Votes for Rubio, Carson, Bush, Christie, and even Kasich (should he not win seven other states beyond his native Ohio) will not be counted.
Here’s the tricky part for all the pundits predicting a brokered Republican convention. White outlined to The Louisiana Weekly that Rule 40B further prevents candidates who have not had a majority in at least eight states from running on the second or subsequent ballots.
“It takes a two-thirds majority of the convention to suspend the Rule,” White said. It’s unlikely that the combined delegates behind Cruz and Trump would vote in favor, so there is little chance that another Republican contender could parachute into the nominating contest. “The Convention Chairman could rule that a voice vote to change the rules carried—when it did not—but that is a very dangerous tactic,” White added.
Not even John Kasich will be allowed to stand for the nomination if the Ohio Governor fails to win another seven state GOP primaries in the next few weeks. Automatically, Rule 40B would create a head to head contest between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. Presumably, White contended, that means the Anti-Trump forces—a majority of the GOP delegates—would unite behind the Texas Senator and make Cruz the nominee.
Tr ump has won most GOP primaries to date due to division amongst his opponents. Still, according to polls, 37 percent of Republicans refuse to vote for Trump in a general election, something that would weigh upon the Rubio, Carson, Bush, and perhaps Kasich delegates after the first vote.
In order to change Rule 40 B, White explains that the RNC Rules Committee meeting in Charlotte, NC in would have to approve the repeal. As would the Convention Rules Committee meeting in Cleveland, and, then, a two-thirds majority of the convention delegates would have to ratify that decision. “Most of the room will be Cruz or Trump supporters, and they will never allow this to happen.”
That translates into effectively a head-to-head series of ballots on the convention floor between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump for the nomination—with no other GOP candidates allowed to participate. It is impossible to have a “brokered convention,” in other words.
When asked why so many reporters keep speculating on a “brokered convention,” and the chances of John Kasich (or some other dark-horse Republican who did not even run in the primaries) becoming the party standard-bearer, White blamed bad journalism.
It’s not like the implications of Rule 40B have not been pointed out, he maintained. “The RNC’s former lawyer Ben Ginsberg has written on 40B. Newt Gingrich talked about it on television this past week.” But few publications other than this newspaper have reported the implications.
To avoid facing the Texas Senator in multiple convention ballots, the New York billionaire must win the nomination out-right, earning 1,237 delegates prior to Cleveland, and that’s unlikely. Losing to Kasich in winner-take-all Ohio on March 15, Trump must garner 60% of the remaining delegates to reach the 1,237-delegate threshold to avoid facing Cruz in a contested Cleveland convention.
Even with his wins in North Carolina, Illinois, Florida, and Missouri, Trump has only garnered 46 percent of the delegates at present.
Kasich’s viability amongst Northern moderates blocks Trump’s ability to follow the path of past GOP frontrunners. The former reality show star cannot automatically count on large-delegate, ‘blue states’ in the closing weeks to push him over the top. Nor can Kasich mathematically reach the 1,237 threshold by Cleveland. He will struggle just to win eight states. While Cruz hopes the anti-Trump forces will rally to him prior to the convention, the Texas Senator would find it statistically difficult to reach 1,237 with Kasich still in the race. And the Ohio Governor has pledged to stay in until Cleveland.
Where should Kasich prevail in seven more state GOP primaries, he enters the convention with the proverbial “home court” advantage. The current GOP delegate count has Trump at 661, Cruz at 406, and Kasich at 142.
This article originally published in the March 21, 2016 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.
