High Black turnout swings critical elections
12th November 2018 · 0 Comments
By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Writer
Despite the absence of any competitive congressional elections in Louisiana, African-American turnout nearly outpaced Caucasian attendance at the polls. At 31 percent, the active percentage of the Black electorate nearly matched the racial breakdown of the Pelican State, which explains why popular progressive white Orleans Parish Civil Court judicial candidate Richard Perque narrowly lost a spot in the runoff, and perennial candidate Marie Williams earned one – along with frontrunner Omar Mason, both African-American.
Moreover, higher Black turnout also provides a possible explanation as to why Gwen Collins-Greenup advanced to the runoff in an upset victory over fellow Democrat Renee Fontenot Free, the only other Democrat in the crowded La. Secretary of State’s race.
Whereas the latter pursued an active campaign, boasted of a flush campaign budget, and claimed virtually every Democratic-leaning endorsement, the white candidate fell to the Black lawyer and notary from Clinton, La. – who spent less than $2000, and did not even appear at most candidate forums. (Partially, this was due to most forum organizers believing that Collins-Greenup was not even attempting to run a serious campaign.)
There is a theory, of course, that Collins-Greenup and the Republican interim-Sec. State incumbent Kyle Ardoin both benefited from the fact that alphabetically, theirs were the first names listed in the nine candidate field – from their respective parties. As most people did not know much about the Sec. State contest (or care), the first two naturally outpaced bigger spending, more supported legislative contenders like Julie Stokes, Rick Edmonds, and A.G. Crowe. It was simply a matter of the first click available to the apathetic voter.
The problem with that postulation comes from the fact that all of the constitutional amendments were enacted due, in large part, to overwhelming African-American support. With just 56 percent support for Amendments 3 and 4, and 58 percent for Amendment 6, the measures may have failed in a normal year. White voters were apparently divided on these initiatives, especially of the last one.
The ancillary evidence suggests that strong Black support for Amendment 2, which mandated unanimous juries for felony convictions (ending a relic of Jim Crow), helped push support for the other controversial measures down ballot, particularly Amendment 6. The latter would spread property tax hikes of more than 50 percent, thanks to massive reappraisals of one’s home value, over four years. While this concept did fit into Louisianans’ pro-homestead political views, the amendment was opposed by most good government organizations, worried about its impact on overall millage rates. It was actively fought by the powerful statewide assessors organization and most rural small town leaders who depend of a percentage of millage revenues for their funding, a non-urban coalition that could have killed the Amendment under normal circumstances.
Moreover, Louisiana overall turnout was low, with estimates put it at 45 percent, below the national average of 49 percent even with election hype from throughout the nation. That makes the high percentage of Black turnout in the Pelican State even more notable in comparison, especially considering that the 50 percent of adults over 18 who could register, and who have not done so, are disproportionately African-American.
While the Black community was divided in the all-African-American contests for Civil Court and 1st City Clerk, with both Chelsey Richard Napoleon and Austin Badon winning thanks to biracial coalitions, African-American turnout did have a strong impact on the La. 1st Congressional race. Steve Scalise obviously won easily in one of the most GOP-leaning seats in the country, but in Orleans Parish, a surge in the Black electorate brought the endorsed Democrat Tammy Savoie up to a 40 percent result to Scalise’s 48 percent.
In nominally Republican St. Bernard Parish, the growing Black population helped Democrat Darren Roy beat Republican Gregory Rome 57 percent – 43 percent. African-American support also played a small role in the Jefferson Parish Juvenile judicial contest where Amanda Calogero enjoyed strong union and Democratic support over her fellow GOP rival Jennifer Guillot Womble, winning 58 percent – 42 percent. (The Black vote probably had little impact on Tim Baudier’s upset victory for Harahan Mayor over incumbent Tina Miceli; though, he did actively court the few Black voters in the suburban town more than the current Mayor, in his 201-vote victory.)
Looking further afield nationally, Black voters did play a strong role in many states, particularly Florida, where voters decisively struck down a 150-year-old law that disenfranchised anyone convicted of a felony, even after completing their sentence. The ballot initiative repeals an 1868 constitutional amendment that overwhelmingly affects Black men. To the degree they vote, the ex-felons could have an enormous impact on elections, since they could become 9.2 percent of Florida’s electorate. (Iowa and Kentucky are the only remaining states that disenfranchise ex-felons.) With the disproportionate percentage of African-American men so disenfranchised, that percentage alone might have swung the close Florida Governor and U.S. Senate contests – won on Tuesday by the GOP – to the Democrats.
While rising Black political stars Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum did lose winnable Governorships in Georgia and Florida against highly damaged GOP opponents, there is another way to look at their defeats. Two African-American unapologetic progressives came with a whisker of triumphing in the two leading states of the former Confederacy. Times have changed, and the trends are going in the direction of a Democratic party led by non-Caucasian aspirants for office – often women.
With some results still being tallied, a dozen women were elected to the Senate, 96 women were elected to the House and nine women will serve as governor — and 42 of those are women of color. Many of these constitute firsts, including the first Muslim women, the first Native American women and the first Latinas from Texas elected to Congress. During their campaigns, some of these candidates made the explicit case that their racial and gender identity would serve as an asset for their districts.
And, the Republicans are being kicked out of the major suburbs as well, playing a large role in the (probable) 232 seat new U.S. House Democratic majority. With the unexpected loss of the GOP Rep. Dan Don Donovan on Staten Island, 47 percent to Democrat Max Rose’s 53 percent, as well as being virtually wiped off the map in neighboring New Jersey in large part because of greater electoral participation by African Americans, Republicans no longer represent any purely urban district in the U.S. Moreover, Democratic lightning strikes in “likely Republican” territory qualified as some of the night’s biggest surprises, in large part thanks to Black voters who have been moving to the inner suburbs of America’s most prominent metro areas.
Republican Katie Arrington had an 11 in 12 possibility of emerging triumphant in the ardently GOP South Carolina 1st District, but Democrat Joe Cunningham eked out a 51 percent to 49 percent win. And in the Oklahoma 5th District, FiveThirtyEight.com had given Republican Rep. Steve Russell a 14 in 15 opportunity to return to Washington, but Democrat Kendra Horn toppled him 51 percent to 49 percent. Mia Love in Salt Lake City, though the only African-American Republican woman in the House, saw Utah’s very small rising Black middle class join with others to vote for Democratic Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams. Currently, McAdams now is ahead by 51.45 percent to 48.55 percent, a lead of 2.9 points and 5,414 votes.
Most critically, Colin Allred, an African-American former NFL player and civil rights lawyer, unseated Texas 32nd District GOP Rep. Pete Session a 22-year incumbent and powerful chairman of the House Rules Committee. On the strength of Black suburban turnout, Democrats had hoped the north Dallas district, which went for Hillary Clinton by nearly two points in 2016, might be in play. Sessions lost it to Allred, 52.2 percent to 45.9 percent, even though Session had not faced a Democratic opponent last election.
All of these House Districts have one thing in common. They are all anchored by urban areas: New York City, Charleston, Oklahoma City, Salt Lake City, and Dallas respectively. Thanks in large part to Black voters migrating to the inner suburbs, Democrats are expanding their electoral strength to the inner suburbs, and breaking the GOP rural-suburban coalition.
With losses in the Great Lakes States, particularly the defeat of Gov. Scott Walker in Wisconsin thanks in part to Black voters in Milwaukee, the GOP is also in trouble in the Upper Mid-West. In the states key to Trump’s victory in 2016, if the President were to lose Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in two years as he did mostly on Tuesday, November 6, 2018, Donald Trump would have earned just 260 electoral votes – 10 shy of what he needs for a second term.
This article originally published in the November 12, 2018 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.
