Green drops out of Council-at-large race

30th January 2012   ·   0 Comments

By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Writer

Can an African-American candidate even win a citywide special election anymore in Orleans Parish—post-Katrina?

The departure of a major candidate in the At-Large race to replace Arnie Fielkow, matched with a lack of surprise that he simultaneously announced a bid for the City Council in 2014, seems to indicate that some of the senior echelons in the local Black political establishment have come to that conclusion.

A week ago, Eugene Green filed with the Elections Division of the Louisiana Secretary of State to withdraw his candidacy from the upcoming New Orleans City Council-At-Large election. “After great consideration, I have decided to formally withdraw from the election that will take place on Saturday, March 24,” stated the former head of the New Orleans Business and Industrial District. “My name will not appear on the official ballot in that election.”

However, the prominent African-American contender added, “I will be a candidate for the New Orleans City Council-At-Large seat in the next election of 2014. I remain committed to contributing my experience towards the enhancement of the quality of life for all of the citizens of New Orleans.”

The Monday, January 23 simultaneous announcement of a withdrawal and a campaign bid, according to insiders close to Green, was based on a perception of turnout in a special election. Head to head in post-Katrina Orleans Parish, Black candidates were at a distinct disadvantage against a white contender in a race for a citywide office—especially when that contender was a well-known as District “B” Council­woman Stacy Head.

Historically, African-American turnout to polls has not kept pace with Caucasians. Despite notable exceptions—David Duke’s gubernatorial bid and Barack Obama’s effort for the White House—Black voters have tended to stay home at a greater rate than whites on election days in general. And, to an even larger extent, African-American apathy has ruled when the polling day occurred at a non-traditional time, a special election when little else was on the ballot.

In the years prior to the Hurricane, though, this low turnout was tempered by the over two-thirds Black-majority of Orleans Parish. Even the much reduced turnout rate still amounted to more aggregate voters than whites could take to the election precincts. Blacks swamped more enthusiastic White voters by sheer numbers.

The result was an African American-majority City Council, with Blacks holding nearly all non-judicial citywide office.

Some sitting Caucasian Democratic judges, a district attorney, and a Registrar of Conveyance had managed to hold on—barely—based on the power of incumbency, but the trend of Black dominance was gaining there as well. Prior to the storm, African-American candidates looked to be poised to dominate both the Tulane & Broad and Poydras Courts, Eddie Jordan had claimed Harry Connick’s old office, and the longest-serving incumbent in Orleans, Gaspar Schiro would have likely been succeeded by an African American absent a storm and the subsequent constitutional modifications.

By the dawn of the 1990s, the City Council increasingly had become a no-go zone for white candidates. Outside of the Caucasian enclaves of Uptown and Lakeview (compromising most of District A), everywhere else a larger Black electorate generally tended to ensure the election of one of their own come election day. Even District “C” Council incumbent Jackie Clarkson would lose to African-American State Rep. Troy Carter, despite her crossover popularity with elements of Black electorate in Algiers.

White candidates kept at least one citywide At-Large position thanks to the 25 percent rule, originally championed by Civil Rights advocates decades before to increase the chances of minority candidates. On the Orleans Council, unlike Jefferson Parish’s, in a primary election every Council At-Large candidate runs together in a single race for both positions. Whomever achieves 25% of the vote in the primary wins. If both spots do not achieve this margin, there is a runoff for the remaining open position.

Therefore in crowded fields of Black contenders, white voters had the ability to unify behind a candidate in the first primary. Many chose to vote for just one candidate, rather than casting the two ballots they were allowed. This proportional tactical voting would increase the overall percentage for a particular candidate, allowing even some conservatives to win in Orleans.

However, out-migration and changing demography had already begun to endanger Black dominance of the city before the storm. Selective gentrification had begun to transform formally depressed urban neighborhoods. Whites had begun to move into Orleans at a faster rate than African Americans were moving out. Black-majority districts like Karen Carter’s old State Rep. seat Uptown, were on the verge of a white majority.

Absent Katrina, the process might have taken years to be felt electorally. The storm, though, accelerated African-American migration, not only decimating areas like New Orleans East and Gentilly, but actually affecting Black enclaves like Central City that saw comparatively minor flooding.

African-Americans would remain the majority in Orleans, but at barely 60 percent of the population, they would tend to vote in equal—and often even lower numbers—than their Caucasian neighbors.

Even the surge of transplanted Black voters, that saved Ray Nagin in the 2006 Mayoral election, would have limited affect in the down ticket races. James Carter was able to ride the wave to a narrow victory over Kristen Palmer in District “C”, but the days of a Black majority insuring the office of their own candidates was coming to a close.

A tell-tale sign was the election of Stacy Head in District “B”. The once solidly Black majority seat that runs through the former St. Thomas Housing Development through the Garden District to Central City, and from Uptown through the CBD, opted for a relatively conservative Democrat, an Uptown member of the Junior League, over a Black incumbent (all be it one with extensive legal problems that would eventually send her to jail).

Still, Head won on increased numbers of affluent, predominantly white voters in the Warehouse District, RiverGarden, Irish Channel, and the edge Uptown. The Garden District was no longer a solitary Caucasian enclave, within a minority-majority seat that had sent Jim Singleton and Oliver Thomas to the City Council. Politically, if not censusly, the district was evenly racially matched. The proof came, not only when Head won re-election four years later over the son of a prominent civil rights leader, but when Helena Moreno won Karen Carter’s House seat, contiguous with much of District “B,” solidly over a mayoral candidate who had exited the mayor’s race with high popularity not only with Blacks, but with white liberals.

In 2010 election, Mitch Landrieu would not only win the mayor’s office in his third attempt, becoming the first white chief executive since his father over three decades before, but Kristen Palmer would earn the District “C” seat that had eluded her four years prior—in an runoff between white candidates for a seat then held by an African American. And, Jackie Clarkson would solidify her return to the New Orleans City Council, defeating African-American District “E” Councilwoman Cynthia Willard Lewis for the second time in a year.

Clarkson won in the regular cycle by earning a narrow 25 percent primary victory over Willard Lewis, after Arnie Fielkow had achieved far more than the quarter of the vote that he sought.

There is little doubt that the multiplicity of African-American candidates played a roll in the Black community not being able to unify to even earn a quarter of the vote for their strongest contender in that year. At least, Willard Lewis had a fighting chance, and lost to Clarkson narrowly. The previous summer, in the special election to first replace Oliver Thomas, she did far worse.

Thomas, prior to his plea deal and resignation, held what was then commonly called the “Black At-Large seat”.

The assumed common convention is that each race would hold one of the two At-Large Council posts. (In reality, that was more an accident of history and the willingness of the Caucasian electorate to prefer one candidate in the 25% sweepstakes, than any agreement between political factions. On several occasions, some of the most powerful African-American political organizations worked to elect Black candidates to both seats.)

With only one of the two At-Large spots open, it was a simple 50% race, that would seem to favor the Black candidate in an African-American majority city. Turnout in the Black community was so much lower, however, for Willard Lewis in the runoff than with the White electorate for Clarkson, that Clarkson won easily.

Eugene Green’s decision, therefore, to eschew the March 24, 2011 special election in favor of running in 2014 is based on solid recent history. Earning 25 percent two years from now seems a far simpler task than getting a majority in a runoff.

If there is a runoff, at all. Stacy Head now faces Cynthia Willard Lewis, in her third bid for the At-Large post, and Austin Badon, in his second bid for the Council. Willard Lewis went on to win an open State Senate seat after her second defeat only to lose that office into a merger minority-majority district. Her fellow incumbent J.P. Morrell defeated her last fall.

Badon, a State Rep. from New Orleans East, dropped his bid for mayor when Landrieu entered the race in late 2009, instead opting for a bid for the open Council District “E” seat. He lost that one narrowly to former State Senator Jon Johnson. Badon was re-elected to the House in 2011.

So, after major defeats, both Willard Lewis and Badon managed to rebound into office (though in the former’s case for only a year until her seat ceased to exist). Both are well respected African-American legislators. Badon, in particular, has garnered support in the white community in the past for his support for school vouchers, and took issue with Mayor Mitch Landrieu as recently as two weeks ago in calling for National Guard Military Police units to augment NOPD amidst the recent spike in murders.

Badon, under different circumstances, is enough of a centrist to earn some white votes and break through the electoral voting majority that Caucasians have maintained in the last two cycles. Under normal circumstances, at least.

Willard Lewis is widely popular in parts of the African-American community for her work on behalf of the displaced after Hurricane Katrina, displayed by her ability to rise like a Phoenix after several defeats.

But given the anemic Black voter turnout in the recent past, Stacy Head could realistically win it in the first, a reality likely not lost on Eugene Green. And, a runoff slot against her with a probable white majority going to the polls just over a month later would provide about as much success.

See how Badon and Willard Lewis do.

Another loss would discredit each further, making the chances of Green getting to 25 percent in 2014 more possible.

This article was originally published in the January 30, 2012 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper