AG Landry announces for governor
10th October 2022 · 0 Comments
By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Writer
The Louisiana governor’s race experienced its real kickoff as the standard-bearer of the Right, Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry announced his bid for the Fourth Floor last week with a nearly seven-minute-long video detailing his biography, hitting on multiple campaign issues, and particularly attacking “radical school leaders.”
Landry joins likely candidates Treasurer John Schroder and Lt. Governor Billy Nungesser. So far, a top-tier Democrat has not announced; could Foster Campbell see the opportunity to make another bid?
The real question, though, remains if Trump’s Republican nemesis U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy will run. The video comes just weeks after Landry’s annual “alligator hunt” fundraiser, where he all but announced his coming gubernatorial campaign. Numbered amongst the attendees were Donald Trump Jr. and his GOP pundit girlfriend Kimberly Guilfoyle. Their presence sent a less-than-subtle message of where the former First Family’s loyalties lie. The Trumps will do anything in their power to elect their loyal, AG attack dog to be Louisiana’s Governor – and to defeat the U.S. senator who voted for their father’s conviction.
If Cassidy does jump into the La. governor’s race, though, he has a card to play which anti-Trump Republicans have been denied in other states’ closed gubernatorial party primaries. In Louisiana, Democrats can vote for the moderate GOP senator in the first round of balloting in October 2023. Yet, those moderate voters are also individuals upon which Billy Nungesser has banked his bid. Boasting of a good working relationship with John Bel Edwards, almost uniquely for a statewide elected Republican, Nungesser sought to be the Republican candidate “acceptable” Democrats – a position his one-time nemesis-turned-ally Jay Dardenne used to questionable success seven years ago. (Dardenne did not make the 2015 runoff, but had enough support that his cross party endorsement likely guaranteed Edwards’ runoff victory over Vitter.)
Cassidy’s presence in the race makes a Nungesser candidacy problematic, as they both seek to construct much the same bipartisan coalition. Part of the reason the stratagem failed for Dardenne came from the fact that Edwards was the most viable Democratic gubernatorial candidate in years. Democrats, if given a chance to vote for a viable Democrat, will cast their ballots for a Democrat.
Of course, Edwards was still considered a long shot eight years ago, as he commenced his campaign. Still, it was hard to dismiss a West Point-educated paratrooper who also served as the leader of the Democratic caucus in the legislature. His unapologetically pro-life stands and ardent Catholicism endeared him to many on the conservative Christian Right who would normally not consider a Democrat.
Right now, few of the rumored Democratic candidates rank of equal stature to then Rep. Edwards – save one. Foster Campbell has repeatedly said that he had no plans to run for governor again. However, the recent debate on abolishing the state income tax took an unexpected turn when Campbell proposed his (long-sought) oil processing tax as a means to pay for it. In past years, the idea proved dead-on-arrival thanks to the power of the Louisiana Chemical Association. This year, however, some in the GOP caucus have taken a second look at the PSC commissioner’s concept. Industry insiders know that it is not the Ukraine War or global supply which has driven up gas prices. It’s the lack of refining capacity – at least outside of Louisiana. And, Pelican State refineries are making record profits as a result.
Campbell has suggested that a revenue neutral tax swap could abolish oil severance taxes and the state income tax for less than the increase in profits that local refineries have enjoyed since the pandemic. Average profits of Louisiana refineries have gone up from $.67 per barrel to $1.15, mostly due to the closure of many of their competitor facilities in other states prior to 2019. “Supply and demand” has rendered Louisiana into a much more dominant position in the refining business than it had a decade ago.
With Environmental Protection Agency regulations making it almost nine years before an approved petroleum refinery can be fully constructed, a window of opportunity potentially exists for Louisiana to get rid of its income tax and not lose the vital industry which would pay for the tax swap – at least not for a while. Moreover, as Campbell says, “It’s not like you can move the Mississippi River.” Waterfront property for refineries remains at a premium worldwide. Most places do not want petroleum platforms obscuring their coastal or riverfront views.
Some have whispered that a Democrat running for governor on the platform of abolishing the state income tax – and providing a reasonable means to do so by taxing the one local industry enjoying a huge increase in profits over the rate of inflation – could enjoy an electoral success next year (amidst all of the rage at skyrocketing gas prices). The trick would be to make sure that the tax is “revenue neutral,” so as to attract moderate fiscal conservatives. Foster Campbell, in his previous gubernatorial bid, wanted to raise revenue, and that constituted “a step too far” for most anti-tax Republicans. That suspicion of him remains.
Campbell, while very vocal about the oil processing tax (though it has a little to do with his job as a public service commissioner), currently has not stated any public intentions to run for governor. The only Democratic candidates being rumored presently are State Senator Gary Smith of St. Charles Parish and Mayor Sharon Weston Broome of East Baton Rouge.
The latter enjoys a much higher profile in Louisiana politics, yet the Pelican State historically has proven resistant to electing an African American statewide. Smith, while less known, enjoys a reputation as a well-respected Caucasian Democratic legislator. He is also married to the granddaughter of U.S. Senator Russell Long – and hence to the great-granddaughter of Governor Huey Long.
What better way to say “every man a king” than by abolishing the income tax, and making the oil industry pay? Taxing oil was Huey Long’s strategy, after all. However, it might prove “a step too far” for a state senator born in Norco.
This article originally published in the October 10, 2022 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.
