Could Duke put La. in the win column for Clinton?
1st August 2016 · 0 Comments
By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Writer
The entrance of the former KKK Grand Wizard in the Louisiana U.S. Senate race creates a tantalizing possibility for the Democratic nominee for President. If GOP moderates bolt for Libertarian Gary Johnson, and local Black turnout surges due to David Duke’s presence on the Senatorial ballot, there is a narrow window for Hillary Clinton to achieve a plurality in the Pelican State on November 8, 2016.
Part of the reason has to do with her strength elsewhere against her opponent. Even regularly reliable Republican states are undoubtedly up for grabs this year by the former Democratic Secretary of State. Despite the early rancor, as the Democratic Party delegates left Philadelphia last week, they do so with the knowledge that Donald Trump trails Hillary Clinton by significant margins in multiple swing states, even southern states such as North Carolina — and Tim Kaine’s Virginia—where a Republican must win in order to have a shot at the White House.
Clinton is doing well even in solidly GOP Louisiana, so far, this year. Trump underperforms both Mitt Romney by two points and John McCain by four points in their respective 2012 and 2008 bids in the Pelican State. Add Libertarian Party’s Gov. Gary Johnson and Green Party’s Dr. Jill Stein—both of whom will be on the Presidential ballot in Louisiana in November—and Donald Trump margins of support here appears to be harmed more than Hillary Clinton’s.
Moreover, excepting a few areas of the Rust Belt where the Third Party candidates help Trump numbers on average, Johnson and Stein actually swing key Southwestern and Sunbelt swing states to Clinton—especially since the former Sec. State seems to be performing better in these various contested states than Barack Obama in head to head matchups with the Republicans.
Even Trump’s post-GOP Convention six point bounce in the polls does little to change the overall fundamental problems the Republican nominee confronts. He might, according to the July 22-24 CNN/ORC survey have claimed a plurality of Indepen-dents, 43 percent to 41 percent, yet the billionaire’s state by state fundamentals remain flawed. That’s why Nate Silver, the only political statistician to accurately predict President Obama’s winning percentage in 2012, still argued last week that the former Dem. Sec. State still has a 60.2 percent chance of emerging victorious over the GOP billionaire, in his “polls-plus forecast” which is adjusted for convention bounces.
According to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight’s Unadjusted Polling Average of Swing States comparing 2012 to 2016, by percentage, Clinton leads Trump by conformable margins. In North Carolina which Romney won +2.0, Clinton is ahead +1.4, a swing of +3.4. In Florida, which narrowly went for Obama at +0.9, Clinton is ahead of Trump +4.6, for a pro-Clinton swing of +3.7. Obama won Virginia+3.9. Clinton best the GOP presumptive nominee+5.7.
As for those vaulted “Rust Belt states” where Trump’s advantages on trade and with White working class voters were supposed to best Clinton in ways that other Republicans could not? In fact, Trump does worse in every case than Romney in 2012 according to the FiveThirtyEight average.
In Ohio, where Obama won +3.0, Clinton prevails +3.2. In Pennsylvania, the state where Republicans were supposed to finally have a shot this year, Clinton stands at +6.1 compared to Obama’s +5.4, in a head to head matchup. It’s worse in Wisconsin. Obama was at +6.9; Clinton is at +9.6. In Minnesota, Obama ranked +7.7. This year, Clinton leads Trump by a +11.0 margin. In Michigan, Obama won +9.5. Clinton has achieved double digits at +11.7 over Trump.
The reasons for the decline are varied. Much has been made of the GOP presumptive nominee’s weakness among GOP women. Yet, according to Chris Jackson of Reuters/Ipsos polling service, “ Donald Trump has a man problem. No, not what you think — this is not about sexist remarks or boorish behavior. Donald Trump, whose candidacy is conventionally thought to rest on the support of working class white men, is not attracting nearly as much enthusiasm from them as Mitt Romney did four years ago. Given his poll deficit to Hillary Clinton, if Trump cannot fire up his base of support, Republicans are headed for big losses in November.”
“Among male supporters who lean conservative, Trump trails Romney’s mark by more than 20 points. This indicates that there are a lot of moderate voters who are inclined to pull the lever for Trump, but are not happy about it. Unless Trump can figure out how better to appeal to these moderate voters, he will continue to have a hard time catching up to Clinton in the race for the White House.”
This phenomena is hurting Trump even in the regions where he is otherwise strong in comparison to Clinton — especially when Third Party nominees are factored into the equation.
Nevada and Colorado are amongst the small handful of swing states where Trump earns a better result than Romney achieved, though not by much—and that’s the problem. In Nevada, where Obama won +6.7, Trump earns a +0.6 over Clinton for a +7.3 swing. In Colorado, Obama won +5.4. Clinton is still ahead, but by just +0.7. That’s a swing of Trump +4.6, which has given the New York Billionaires defenders the justification that their candidate will prevail in the swing states.
However, these poll averages do not factor that there will be two more candidates on the ballot, contending for the vote. Trump’s vote in Arizona is already weak for a Republican. Romney won +9, but in a head to head contest with Clinton according to the FiveThir-tyEight average, Trump emerges at +1, only one point ahead,
Add Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, and the evidence suggests that the Libertarian and Green Presidential candidates may steal more votes from Trump than Clinton in the Southwest.
Johnson, as a former governor of New Mexico, already enjoys a positive profile amongst voters in the Southwest. Johnson’s experience as the CEO of a marijuana company might win support in perpetual swing state Colorado, and FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver predicts Arizona, where Johnson is averaging eight percent, could flip to the Democrats.
Also, in a Republican nightmare scenario, Johnson could upset Utah, where Mormons have reacted negatively to Trump’s proposed temporary ban on Muslims entering the country. Johnson received 16 percent support in his best state poll in Utah, and achieved 13 percent in the most recent survey, which tied Clinton and Trump at 35 percent. Mormon Mitt Romney won 72 percent of the Utah electorate in 2102. In fact, a poll conducted in Utah’s Fourth Congressional District, a swing seat held by African-American Republican Mia Love, showed Johnson, Trump, and Clinton in a statistical dead-heat.
Were Johnson to throw Arizona, Utah, and Nevada to Clinton, their combined 23 electoral votes would be enough to insulate Clinton from losing Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes, if Trump’s focus on the blue-leaning state pays off. (Pennsylvania is one of the few states where Gary Johnson’s and Jill Stein’s presence on the ballot seems to help Trump on balance against Clinton, drawing off more Democrats than Republicans.) Winning Arizona, Nevada, Utah might allow to former Secretary of State to lose every other swing state but Florida and still reach 270 electoral votes.
As for whether Johnson or Stein could also hurt Clinton more than Trump in Colorado and New Mexico, Phil Paolino, a political scientist who has studied past third-party campaigns, told The Las Vegas Review-Journal that “some Democrats may be sufficiently risk-averse to want to be sure to avoid a repeat of 2000,” where Nader elected Bush. Republicans, he implies, are more likely to break ranks than Democrats in swing states like Nevada.
Which brings the conversation back to Louisiana. It’s worth remembering that in the 1992 and 1996 elections, Bill Clinton carried the Pelican State, despite the rising Republican wave. This state recently elected a Democratic Governor, despite its conservative lean, due to revulsion by swing voters at the actions of the incumbent Republican Senator-turned-GOP Gubernatorial candidate, despite polls which suggested this scenario to be impossible.
It’s due to the fact that the “Lean Conservative” GOP Moderates abandoned Sen. David Vitter. That could also happen with Trump, if there is an alternative like Gary Johnson on the ballot, since the Presidential contest winner is by plurality rather than majority. On balance, Stein hurts Clinton, of course, but is less of a factor. Nader claimed 1.2 percent of the vote in 2000, and even then, 30 percent of Nader’s Pelican State voters said they would have supported Bush rather than Clinton in a head-to-head. The Greens may prove a wash here this year.
Of course, the proverbial wild-card in this scenario, is a potential surge in African-American voters thanks to David Duke running for the U.S. Senate. Blacks coming out to the polls in massive numbers in opposition to the former KKK Grand Wizard is hardly unprecedented. If Democratic-leaning African Americans hit historic turnout highs in Louisiana, and Republican moderates bolt for Johnson, Hillary has a chance even in Louisiana. The Presidential contest is the only election in this state where a candidate need only exceed her opponents, not win a majority. With Duke and Johnson both on the ballot, such a perfect storm of plurality for Hillary could come to pass.
Still, the Pelican State aside, if Donald Trump loses Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and New Hampshire, (all states Obama won and in which the former Sec. State leads) as well as forfeiting usually GOP Arizona thanks to Johnson, Hillary Clinton still wins 270-268, even if the elusive prize of Pennsylvania is finally claimed by the GOP Presidential candidate.
This article originally published in the August 1, 2016 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.
