Could Wilson be knocked out of governor’s runoff?
14th August 2023 · 0 Comments
By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Writer
When qualifying closed on August 10, there were only a few surprises, yet two of them call into question the Louisiana Democratic Party’s carefully crafted plan to guarantee that former Edwards administration Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson would earn a spot in the runoff. Democrats failed to narrow their contenders to one standard-bearer. African-American Democrat Oscar “Omar” Dantzler Jr. and Caucasian Democrat Daniel M. “Danny” Cole qualified for the gubernatorial contest along with Black Independent Benjamin Barnes. Enough division in the Democratic field, particularly from the African-American base, and there exists a possibility that one of the minor Republicans in the gubernatorial field could edge past Wilson, and face frontrunner Jeff Landry in all GOP runoff.
Prior to qualifying, every poll suggested that a gubernatorial runoff was essential set between Wilson, a Democrat, and Republican Jeff Landry. The most recent “Citizens for a New Louisiana” survey puts the former transportation secretary at 28 percent and the GOP attorney general at 30 percent. The rest of the gubernatorial field, mostly Republicans, languished in the single digits – despite spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on advertisements and voter outreach. Outgoing Treasurer John Schroder ranked at six percent, former LABI head and Jindal administration official Steve Waguespack at five percent, state Senator Sharon Hewitt at four percent, and state Representative Richard Nelson at one percent. Socially conservative trial lawyer, insurance company critic, and pro-life activist Hunter Lundy also ranked at five percent.
Other polls deliver similar results – with the exception of one outlier showing Waguespack at 16 percent yet still far behind the Republican and Democratic frontrunners. With less than six weeks until early voting (September 30 to October 7), little time exists for the minor candidates to transform their messaging and propel themselves into a November runoff. Every underfunded politician hopes to be the next Buddy Roemer, whose “I make some people angry” ads catapulted the north Louisiana congressman from fifth to first in the 1987 primary, yet time is running out for such an upset.
In that year, a large minority of Democrats were discontented with incumbent Edwin Edwards’ legal troubles, and Republican frontrunner Congressman Bob Livingston drew little enthusiasm with base conservatives. A conservative Democrat who spoke to many GOP fiscal priorities like Roemer enjoyed an unusual opening with crossover voters. Hunter Lundy has tried the mirror of that strategy by appealing to social conservatives whilst trying to draw liberals into an anti-corporate coalition, with limited success.
Pundits had speculated that, for one of the minor GOP contenders to break out, would require a massive erosion of Landry’s base support, an unlikely scenario. While disliked in some circles, the attorney general set up his run for governor with near-strategic perfection. When the La. GOP ran short on money, Landry subsidized the party out of his coffers for more than two years. The party’s early “official” endorsement of the AG can be traced directly to that financial windfall. Moreover, Landry’s consistent loyalty to the Trump administration, carrying their lawsuits against disliked federal regulations and election results, won him the former First Family’s endorsement. Even with the recent indictments, Donald Trump remains overwhelmingly popular in the Pelican State, and his blessing seems to have secured Landry’s runoff slot.
However, the final field which qualified by last Thursday, hinted at another tantalizing possibility. If Dantzler, Cole, and Barnes could shave 10 percent points off of Wilson’s total, dividing the Left, there is a small possibility that one of the second tier GOP candidates might be able to convince the supporters of the other “also-rans” to give him or her a chance, as a runoff possibility would now exist. He or she could consolidate the anti-Landry Republicans, providing enough to advance from five percent to 18 percent, and thereby narrowly slip past Wilson into the runoff.
That is part of the reason that the other GOP contenders qualified last week, despite the odds against them. Waguespack and Schroder have upped their advertising in recent weeks, and Hewitt and Nelson have embarked on interesting social media strategies. Nelson even has mass text messaged GOP chronic voters asking if they have any questions to which he would reply personally – retail politics of the digital age. Others, like Schroder, have touted their support by senior state party leaders, despite the “official” endorsement. As RSCC senior member Vinson Serio wrote two weeks, “Four Years ago supported for re-election and per his consistent great performance as State Legislator and State Treasurer, Claire & I are supporting John Schroder for Governor. Contact me for a ‘Schroder for Governor’ campaign yard sign.” Sometimes surrogates make a difference, but it has not reflected in the polls as of yet.
More importantly, these second tier GOP candidates face a new problem. More Republicans qualified by 4:30 on August 10 than anyone expected. They include Patrick Henry “Dat” Barthel, Xavier Ellis, and “Xan” John, as well as Caucasian Independents “Keitron” Gagnon, Frank Scurlock, and Jeffery Istre. That cuts up the conservative “pie” even further. Still, the autumn Louisiana state elections have garnered little public attention so far, a situation benefiting the frontrunners. As such, several of the mainline GOP candidates have argued that the down-ticket statewide races will help push turnout, correspondingly increasing their slim chances. And, this season promises to be competitive. Only Agriculture Commissioner Mike Strain runs unopposed, and while Lt. Governor Billy Nungesser is considered the favorite, he did draw opposition from former African-American Republican state Senator Elbert Gillory, GOP activist Tami Hotard, and Black Democrat Willie Jones, as well as Independents Chester Pritchett, Bruce Payton, and Gary Rispone.
Every other statewide race promises to be an even more competitive affair, featuring high dollar expenditures which might could infrequent voters to the polls. That aides the minor GOP gubernatorial contenders trying to get up their percentages, but then again, it also helps the Democratic challengers to Wilson. In the secretary of state’s contest, two prominent African-American activists opted to run, “Gwen” Collins-Greenup and former Orleans Clerk of Court Arthur A. Morrell. Former LAGOP Chair and PSC Commissioner “Mike” Francis, former state Rep. Nancy Landry, House Speaker Clay Schexnayder dominate the Republican field, with fellow GOP candidates Amanda “Smith” Jennings, Thomas J. Kennedy, and Brandon Trosclair rounding out the field.
The open attorney general’s race appears to be an evenly matched affair, with prominent attorney and Crimefighters Boardmember “Marty” Maley facing off against State Rep. John Stefanski and “Liz” Baker Murrill on the Republican side and Lindsey Cheek and Perry Walker Terrebonne on the Democratic side. All are Caucasian. Former GOP North Louisiana Congressman John Fleming jumped into the treasurer’s race against Republican state Rep. Scott McKnight and Democrat Dustin Granger. Republican Tim Temple, who won 47 percent of the vote against incumbent Jim Donelon four years ago, runs again for insurance commissioner, this time against Democrat Rich Weaver.
There are some really competitive elections in Orleans. The 23rd state Representative District in MidCity drew Democrats Bryan Jefferson, Shaun Mena, Pearl Ricks, and Tammy M. Savoie. The Uptown/Garden District State Representative District 91 race where incumbent Mandie Landry faces off against well-funded challenger and fellow Democrat Madison O’Malley as well as Ed Carlson. In the Lakefront’s 94th District, Republican Charles E. Marsala takes on GOP incumbent state Rep. Stephanie Hilferty.
Still, most of the hotly contested regional and parochial contests tend to be in Republican parishes in this cycle. In St. Bernard, Rep. Ray Garafolo seeks promotion to the State Senate, running against Republican Robert “Bob” Owen. For Garafolo’s former seat, former Councilman and Parish Government official Mike Bayham will drive turnout as he faces off against fellow Republican Richie Lewis and Democrats Stacie Riley and AJ Duvio. Moreover, the parish president and every councilmanic position is contested.
Cynthia Lee-Shang might have avoided a competitive re-election in Jefferson, but Division “B” Councilman At-Large Scott Walker is in a tight race for a second term with fellow District Councilman Dominic Impastato. In Division “A,” Jennifer Van Vrancken fights to hold off fellow Councilperson Ricky Templet along with J. “Frankie” Hyers. And District 3, 4 and 5 have political veterans like running. (More in next week’s edition.) Heavy turnout in Jefferson and St. Bernard is not only critical to the La. GOP, it is the second tier’s candidates only hope to consolidate political support.
This article originally published in the August 14, 2023 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.
