Does Edwards run for Congress help Sen. Landrieu?

26th March 2014   ·   0 Comments

By Christopher TIdmore
Contributing Writer

“I haven’t had this much attention since the trial,” ex-con and ex-Governor Edwin W. Edwards exclaimed to the gaggle of photographers, who traced his every step at the Baton Rouge Press Club gathering on Monday, March 17, 2014.

The assembled media appeared to hear “Fast Eddie’s” motives for joining the open Sixth Congres­sional District race. “I acknowledge there are good reasons why I should not run, but there are better reasons why I should,” he told the crowd, immediately sparking speculation of his chances of victory in the deeply Republican seat, stretching from North of Baton Rouge down to Lafourche Parish.

Media accounts centered upon the former governor’s support for elements of the Affordable Care Act, which his Republican opponents all decried. “Mend it, don’t end it,” he implied.

Amidst all of the discussions, few reporters have speculated on how Edwards’ presence could impact—and improve—the chances of Mary Landrieu winning a fourth term in the U.S. Senate. It is ironic, considering on Edwards’ long-standing antipathy to the Landrieu family, and his dislike for the Senior Senator specifically who chose not to sign off on the former Governor’s commutation of sentence. Her refusal to endorse it kept him in jail for an extra two years. Still, Edwin Edwards’ bid for Congress may bolster Landrieu to win re-election.

The former Gover­nor’s candidacy may provide the vehicle to drive Baton Rouge area African-Ameri­cans and Eastern “Yellow Dog” Democratic Cajuns to the polls. Put simply, if these voters come out for Edwards, they are also likely to cast a ballot for Landrieu. Without the unique enthusiasm for the former governor, Lan­drieu risks being buried by rising Republican antipathy for Obamacare. This conservative anger threatens to diminish the strength of cross­over GOP voters upon which Mary Landrieu has constructed most of her statewide victories.

She needs full turn­out from Blacks and pro-Democratic Cajuns.

The latter has little enthusiasm to go to the polls for a New Orleans candidate like Landrieu.

And political pundits believe African Americans, once a key constituency of her family, may not turn out to vote in November. They cite the Landrieus’ recent difficulty with the Black community in the New Orleans’ mayoral race earlier in the year.

While brother Mitch won, he faced a Black challenger with considerable support thanks to a feeling from African Americans that they were forgotten in the recovery of the city. The thinking is that if some of that African-Ameri­can electorate chooses to stay home, she needs a high turnout from other African Ameri­cans to make up the difference. The Baton Rouge Black vote becomes the key constituency in constructing a winning Demo­cratic coalition.

In her last victory in 2008, these turnout dynamics amongst Afri­can Americans were less critical. Landrieu benefited from a surge in Black voters for Barack Obama, casting ballots at or above the Caucasian electorate. While the Illinois Senator lost Louisi­ana, 60-40, without the surge of the African-American vote, most data suggests that Landrieu’s better than 100,000 vote majority would have more closely reflected her earlier, tight wins.

And, in that election, the U.S. Senate was also not in play, and the GOP fielded a candidate in Treasurer John Kennedy who ran as an anti-entitlement cutting, pro-government Democrat just four years prior—in 2004. This time around, Republican Bill Cassidy is far from a household name, but he does not have Kennedy’s liabilities with conservative voters.

Despite the Senior Senator’s new post as head of the powerful Natural Resources Committee, the GOP has a simple mantra, “Control of the Senate, and repeal of Obamacare, goes through Mary Landrieu.” That’s sure to get Tea Party voters out to vote. As such, Landrieu needs every African-American at the polls possible to mitigate any motivated GOP GOTV effort.

Her ace in the hole is the one Democrat she fought with her entire political career. Black voters still love Edwin Edwards. The former governor is remembered with affection by the 21.9 percent African-American electorate of the redrawn 6th District. They are a key element of Edwards’ strategy to make a runoff with one of the myriad of Republican contenders for the US House seat.

As a consequence, should Blacks surge on behalf of the former governor, Landrieu may have her best chance of achieving a first primary victory in November. She enjoys the particular advantage of facing several Republican contenders, not just one, from the outgoing 6th District incumbent Congressman Bill Cassidy to State Rep. Paul Hollis to Tea Party favorite Col. Rob Maness. If they divide public attention enough, spending their time fighting one another rather than the incumbent, Landrieu could, with a strong enough Democratic surge, eek out a primary victory. It is much the same strategy as David Vitter achieved against a crowded Democratic field in 2004.

Also, Edwards’ continuing popularity amongst Acadians, never a Landrieu constituency, may also prove helpful. Since the 6th District was drawn down Bayou Lafourche, some of the former Cajun governor’s most loyal backers were Gerrymandered into the 6th seat. In an all Republican Con­gressional field, many may have chosen to stay home. For their hero “Grey Fox,” though, they’ll go vote, and Landrieu could benefit from those “Yellow Dog Democrats” casting a party-line ballot.

Yet, regardless of whatever ancillary aid Edwards might provide her, Obamacare remains a warning for Mary Landrieu. Her message on the ACA is already forming up to be the same as Edwards’, “Mend it, don’t end it.”

The former governor defended several provisions of the Affordable Care Act in his speech before the Baton Rouge Press Club, particularly attacking Piyush Jindal for not accepting increased Medicaid dollars. Landrieu, the next day, sent out a rare attack on the current Republican governor for the same reason.

It was framed as a pledge to support legislation to accept the increased federal Medicaid dollars, stating, “State Senator Ben Nevers introduced SB 96 to accept $16 billion to expand access to basic health care for 240,000 hard­-working Louis­ianians. Many of them earn too much to qualify for traditional Medicaid, but not enough to afford coverage in the new marketplaces. They have fallen into the ‘Jindal Gap’ because Louisiana’s Governor Piyush Jindal continues to say NO.”

This article originally published in the March 24, 2014 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.