GOP candidate has a chance in 2nd Cong. race

By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Writer

A new poll in the 2nd Congressional District race postulates the real possibility that there may be a real third contender for a runoff slot beyond Senators Troy Carter and Karen Carter Peterson – and it may be Republican Claston Bernard.

A telephone survey of 651 likely voters in Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District was conducted on March 2 through March 7, 2021, by pollsters Dr. Edward Chervenak of Edgewater Research LLC and Dr. Tony Licciardi of My People Vote. Troy Carter leads the field with 35 percent of respondents supporting his candidacy. Karen Carter Peterson is next garnering 24 percent support, while Baton Rouge Democratic activist Gary Chambers trails behind at 11 percent. Another 16 percent of respondents say they are going to vote for someone else, with 15 percent undecided, and that’s the trick in the data.

In the cross tabs, 53 percent of Republicans in the district said that they planned to vote for a Republican, and 16 percent pledged to vote for someone other than the top three candidates. Only six percent of the GOP electorate would commit to vote for a Democrat. In the November 2020 re-election of Cedric Richmond (hardly a competitive race where anti-Trump Democratic turnout in this Black majority, strong blue seat was at a fever-pitch), the Republican candidates collectively earned almost 20 percent of the vote. That truth stands as the foundation upon which former LSU track and field star, Olympic decathlon competitor and Jamaican immigrant Claston Bernard has built his campaign.

If he can consolidate the GOP vote in the 2nd District March 20 special election, the poll suggests – thanks to its 3.8 percent margin of error – a potential statistical tie with State Sen. Karen Carter Peterson for the officially-endorsed, Republican athlete-turned-Gonzales-area businessman. It’s a long shot, but Bernard admitted to The Louisiana Weekly, yet he also added, “I am absolutely certain that I will be in the runoff.”

Part of his certainty rests in the fact that while the GOP electorate alone might be able to propel him into the runoff after the March 20 primary, Bernard has made an appeal to disaffected African-American voters, seeking to draw away “at least 28 percent of the Black vote,” as he explains. That would be a historic achievement for a Republican candidate in Louisiana. The poll suggests that it is possible, if unlikely.

In Bernard’s home turf of Ascension and Assumption parishes, the “someone else” and “undecided” vote stands at 20 percent and 60 percent collectively. It’s 43 percent in St. James and 23 percent in St. John. As the only candidate hailing from the River Parishes, Bernard has made a highly financed and active geographic appeal. Moreover, across the 2nd District, 22 percent of African Americans, 47 percent of Caucasians, and 39 percent of Hispanics and Asians seek “someone else” or are “undecided.”

Bernard’s major challenge is that other Republicans qualified for the congressional contest. Despite Bernard earning official party endorsement, there is little that he can do about the fact that GOP candidate Chelsea Ardoin tops the ballot. Such is the tyranny of alphabetical order. Past Republican candidate and Cedric Richmond challenger Sheldon C. Vincent Sr. is also listed in the critical last position, and Republican “Greg” Lirette near the middle of the crowded field of 15 candidates of all parties.

The multiplicity of contenders, and the fact that women overwhelmingly favor her candidacy, suggests that Karen Carter Peterson will benefit from this confusion, and make it into the runoff as originally expected. Nevertheless, no political observer foresaw such a proverbial horse race against the former La. Democratic Chairman when Congressman Richmond resigned to take his White House post, and KCP became the first Democrat to announce her candidacy for the U.S. House of Representatives.

This article originally published in the March 15, 2021 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.