GOP candidates lining up to replace Vitter in Senate

13th July 2015   ·   0 Comments

By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Writer

Can a Democrat is payday loans illegal in maryland beat David Vitter for governor this fall?

State Rep. John Bel Edwards thinks he can, but his resolve has not stopped two of Louisiana’s most powerful Republican con­gress­­man from lining up to run to replace Vitter in the U.S. Senate, should the GOP incumbent emerge victorious. In the minds of Reps. John Fleming and Charles Bous­tany, Vitter’s claim to the Legisla­ture’s Fourth Floor ranks as a foregone conclusion, and the 2016 Senate race has already commenced!

As the Pelican State hardens into GOP-only territory, the pundits’ assumption has been that should Edwards make the runoff, he would play the sacrificial Demo­crat to a triumphant Vitter. Pro-Dardenne or pro-Angelle Republi­cans would come home to the embattled U.S. Senator, post-primary, despite their personal distaste at his prostitution missteps—as undecided Republicans did in 2010 when moderate Acadiana Democratic Congressman Charlie Melançon sought to unseat Vitter.

The Governorship would be his, as it would for any Republican facing a Democrat in a runoff in rebranded “Red State” Louisiana. John Bel Edwards has contested those notions, with his surrogates arguing that in a runoff, polls put the State House Democratic Minority Leader at a near statistical tie with Vitter, 31 percent to 34 percent, thanks to 2.99 percent margin of error. (MarblePort Polling, conducted March 17).

If the Landrieu-Cassidy Senate race proves any guide, however, in an off-year election, turnout dynamics would convince the remaining third of undecided electorate to split overwhelmingly in favor of any Republican. Edwards counters with another survey from Southern Media and Opinion Research citing the margin difference of Vitter’s support between men and women at 15 percent. Amongst Republican women, there was an even more significant gender gap. It stood 17 percent lower than compared to the U.S. Senator’s stronger support online personal loans instant approval bad credit from Republican men.

The theory circulating through the Edwards camp centers around the impact of Vitter’s prostitution scandals (first broken here in The Louisiana Weekly and then confirmed subsequently in 2007). Democratic staffers argue they have permanently tarred him with a strong segment of GOP females. Last time, control of the U.S. Senate made these women hold their noses and vote for Vitter. This year, these women are free to vote their consciences.

Still, the truth remains that a Democrat has not won a statewide race since 2008. While the GOP U.S. Senator’s prostitution scandal still torments him with GOP women, Louisiana’s Republican tilt amongst Caucasian voters means Vitter can still win the Governor­ship. It just means a tighter-than-normal margin of victory.

That is why GOP Congressmen John Fleming and Charles Boustany — and to a lesser extent Louisiana State Treasurer John Kennedy — have already commenced their bids to replace Vitter in the U.S. Senate.

Fleming, a North Louisiana Congressman, garnered $741,000 campaign donations in the second quarter of 2015, including a personal donation from his own funds. He has already announced his bid for the U.S. Senate.

That translates into Fleming possessing more than two million dollars in his federal campaign account, every dollar of which could be directed at his Senate bid. Contrast that, as National Journal magazine did, with the fact that the Congressman has never reported raising more than $425,000 in a single campaign period, according to Federal Election Commission records.

Moreover, Fleming does not run alone on the Re­pub­lican side. South­west Lou­isiana GOP Rep. Charles Bous­tany, who told don­ors in June of his intentions for a Senate bid of his own if Vitter be­comes governor, also raised a personal-best $700,000 in the second quarter interest rates on unsecured loan of 2015.

Treasurer John Neely Kennedy, meanwhile, has also been reportedly aiming for a third U.S. Senate bid. After failing as to win federal election as a Democrat in 2004, where he lost to then-GOP Congressman David Vitter, Kennedy tried again for the U.S. Senate in 2008 as a Republican. The Louisiana Treasurer lost to Mary Landrieu, marking the last time any Democrat won statewide. His federal campaign account is strong, but not nearly on par with the two Republican Congressmen. (Kennedy is prohibited by law from utilizing his state fundraising contributions for a federal race.)

Tea Party Republican Rob Maness, who impressed many mainstream Republicans with his warm embrace of Bill Cassidy in last year’s U.S. Senate runoff, has also openly flirted with a bid for Vitter’s open seat. The retired Air Force Colonel lacks the financial resources of the other potential candidates, but his strong Grass roots support on the populist Right makes up for some of his fundraising weakness.

Of course, the wildcard in the 2016 race is who Governor Vitter might opt to fill the open U.S. Senate seat until the fall elections. He could appoint a placeholder or could choose one of the two congressmen, give either Republican a proverbial ‘leg up’ over the other. Or the new governor could opt for Kennedy, who has grown quite close to Vitter in recent years, despite their 2004 electoral dustup. (The two men collaborated in opposition to Gov. Jindal’s plan to permanently shutter Charity Hos­pi­tal for example. They favored Big Charity’s reopening, under the Found­ation for Historical Louisi­ana’s plan.)

The temptation for Vitter to appoint a placeholder, someone who refuses to seek a full term in 2016, might prove overwhelming. The new governor would be assured of avoiding embarrassment if his appointed instant online pay day loans senator loses re-election.

Of course, this model assumes that the other announced Democrat in the 2015 gubernatorial election, Cary Deaton, does not manage to draw enough votes from Edwards to put either Lt. Governor Jay Dardenne or PSC Commission Scott Angelle into runoff striking distance. Deaton reminded The Weekly that earned 50,000 votes in his bid against Piyush Jindal.

Moreover, Scott Angelle’s surrogates have pointed to a poll by Verne Kennedy’s Market Research that puts eight percent of the vote “leaning” towards his campaign, on top of the 10 percent hard support the PSC Commissioner enjoys. If Angelle ranks at 18 percent by the October primary, that would put him only three points behind Ed­wards for a runoff slot. The State House Democratic leader is at 21 percent in Ken­nedy’s poll.

Yet, when ‘leaners’ are given to Ed-wards as well, he shoots forward, well beyond the range of Angelle or Dardenne.

Dardenne pointed to his recent campaign efforts in Northwest Louisiana from Shreveport southward to Natchitoches that have not been surveyed recently to show that he has grown beyond his Baton Rouge base. The lieutenant governor maintained that having won two statewide offices already, he stands as the natural runoff opponent of Vitter.

Nor has the Lt. Governor shied away from the U.S. Senator’s problem with women Republi­cans. Much of Dardenne’s outreach has centered around female moderates and conservatives, speaking to their concerns.

Nevertheless, Verne Kennedy summed up his own survey’s results by saying, “[i]t looks like a runoff between Vitter and Edwards.”

And, the starting gun for the 2016 U.S. Senate race has gone off.

This article originally published in the July 13, 2015 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.