In Red Louisiana, can two Democrats make runoff for Vitter’s Senate
9th May 2016 · 0 Comments
By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Writer
The Senate race to replace the retiring David Vitter may be producing so many viable candidates, Republican Louisiana could, in fact, elect two Democrats to the December runoff—and one to Washington—potentially swinging partisan control of the Upper House. And, a former Democrat supporting Donald Trump is part of the cause.
The danger that a GOP contender would not emerge with a runoff slot from the November primary, and increasingly Right-leaning Louisi-ana consequently would elect a Democrat to the federal Senate, is far from far-fetched, thanks to three equally viable Democrats facing a multitude of Republicans and the aforementioned increasingly outspokenly Right-wing Independent in the race.
The Louisiana Weekly has learned that former Jefferson Parish President John Young will not run in the 2016 Senate race, removing the strongest Republican from the Metro New Orleans area, and the only one enjoying considerable crossover support from Demo-crats statewide. Young explained to the Weekly that while an outpouring of support encouraged a bid, this year he needed to “make family a priority.” But, Young added, “I would not rule out a future race for federal or state office.”
Lacking Young’s proven ability to win core Democratic votes, the US Senate race will likely follow the conventional model of voter turnout in Louisiana. The Democratic “floor” in any statewide can be calculated by the votes received by Bill Jefferson against Mike Foster or Bobby Jindal against unknown teacher in their gubernatorial re-elections.
In 2011, Jindal won 66 percent of the vote against a field of nine opponents. The “officially endorsed” Democrat, political unknown Tara Hollis earned just 18 percent. Her fellow “also ran” Democrats collectively earned another 10.25 percent, with left-leaning “no party” candidates garnering the remainder. Likewise, in 1999, Foster earned 62 percent for re-election versus 30 percent for Jefferson, with the remainder going to a crowded field of 11. With nary a dollar spent, the Democratic floor in Louisiana is roughly 32 percent-38 percent – votes out of reach for any Republican.
Feature a stronger, well-funded, Caucasian Democrat, and the floor vote increases. Caroline Fayard, in her last bid for office, spent avidly and won 43 percent of the electorate against Jay Dardenne’s 57 percent in a Nov. 2010 special election for Lt. Governor. Conversely, a year later, Dardenne beat fellow Republican Billy Nungesser in the runoff 53 percent-47 percent.
In contrast, in November 2015, arguably the best Democratic year in Louisiana in a decade, on the coattails of John Bel Edwards, the African-American Mayor of Baton Rouge Kip Holden lost to Nungesser for the same job, 55 percent-45 percent. (In the primary a month earlier, African-American Democrat Chris Tyson garnered only 38 percent versus Republican incumbent Sec. State Tom Schedler, a more representative sample of the Democratic floor.)
Nevertheless, Holden, while underfinanced, had enough of a statewide profile and the tail wind of a Democrat who won over David Vitter by 11 points, that he proved that for a high profile Democratic candidate like he (or Fayard)—or set of well-financed candidates—the floor goes up to 43 percent – 45 percent.
This year’s U.S. Senate race will see three high profile Democratic candidates, all evenly matched. Caroline Fayard announced weeks ago, and the Denham Springs attorney has already loaned her campaign $150,000. Far more funds will soon come from her wealthy father Calvin and his friends, according to sources, just as those monies flowed in her Lt. Gubernatorial bid.
Democrat Joshua Pellerin, president and CEO of Acadiana’s Pellerin Energy Group, has already devoted a large chunk of his family’s multi-million dollar fortune to the race. Moreover, as the only prominent Democrat in Acadiana, Pellerin benefits from the Louisiana truism of “Cajuns voting for Cajuns.”
With just $250,000 constituting his entire campaign fund so far, Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell will not be able to call upon a family fortune as his fellow Democrats have. Yet, he enjoys a validation far more important. Campbell stands as the personal candidate of John Bel Edwards. The Governor endorsed the PSC Commissioner in front of the Democratic State Central Committee almost two months ago, and has actively worked to unite Democrats behind his long-time political ally.
Campbell’s advocacy for a oil processing tax, though, has tempered high brow Democratic enthusiasm in this very petrochemical state, leaving wide openings for Fayard and Pellerin—both with strong connections to the industry. Nevertheless, in the 2007 Governor’s race, Campbell’s populism earned 12 percent of the vote with virtually no money spent. That’s the worst he will do this year.
Add Walter Boasso and John Georges and collectively the three prominent candidates were able to garner 43 percent of the vote against then-widely popular Bobby Jindal better demonstrates the anti-Republican ‘well-financed’ floor than any other statistic.
And, their 2007 bid was against a single standard-bearer. The question remains what will happen against multiple well-supported Republicans? For there is no shortage of GOP contenders in 2016, and as the 1996 US Senate race almost proved, it is quite easy for the Right to divide so completely in an open primary that there is a danger that no GOP contender will emerge. If not for a last minute intervention by Rep. Bob Livingston pulling the GOP together to endorse Woody Jenkins, and stop David Duke, Democrats Richard Ieyoub and Mary Landrieu would have faced off in the runoff.
Currently, Acadiana 3rd District Congressman Charles Boustany, North Louisiana’s 4th District Congressman John Fleming, former New Orleans 2nd District Congressman Joseph Cao, State Treasurer John Kennedy, and retired Air Force Colonel and 2014 Senate candidate Rob Maness have all declared to run this year.
Metairie Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta is considering a Senate bid, as is St. Tammany State Rep. Paul Hollis, rounding out the prominence of the GOP field. Even if Skrmetta and Hollis—both millionaires who can self-finance – demur from running, the competitive Republican contest still cannibalizes their core vote.
Dr. Charles Boustany will stand as the Cajun candidate on the GOP side, earning him the Franco-ethnic loyalty that nearly propelled Scott Angelle into the gubernatorial runoff last year.
Moreover, while starting out behind in the money race, Boustany raised $610,744 in the third quarter, $553,000 in the fourth quarter, and $700,000 in the first quarter of 2016, outpacing Dr. John Fleming by hundreds of thousands, according to the FEC. Boustany trails his fellow, sitting Congressman, $2.3 million to $1.9 million, but at his current rate of fundraising, may surpass the Minden doctor-turned-Rep.
The North Louisiana Republican MD fights a proverbial knife fight against Col. Rob Maness for the Tea Party vote. On paper, Fleming should be the obvious standard-bearer. His Congressional voting record aligns with the ‘Freedom Caucus’.
Col. Maness also won 13.76 percent of the vote in 2014 against Bill Cassidy and Mary Landrieu, demonstrating his strength with conservatives. The two men split the activist Right this year, in other words. That should mean in a normal political environment the more moderate Boustany would combine his base and centrist politics to claim a runoff slot. Except Boustany fights for that narrow turf with John Neely Kennedy.
The State Treasurer might have had trouble transferring his $1 million state campaign fund into a Federal SuperPAC, but he maintains $700,000 in the bank and a position as the populist fiscal watchdog of Baton Rouge. His base in Baton Rouge is shakier than Boustany’s in Acadiana, but Kennedy’s statewide appeal blunts Boustany’s expansion into the GOP Center Right.
Not nearly as much as Joseph Cao, though. The only NOLA Republican remaining post-Young capable of winning a portion of Democratic votes, the former GOP Congressman from New Orleans’ Black majority District is even more popular amongst Independents who normally vote Republican. His strength in Louisiana’s growing Asian community, as a minority candidate, can draw moderate voters in ways his Caucasian rivals cannot hope.
Despite Cao’s crossover appeal, the former Vietnamese-American Congressman lacks big money. In other words, nearly all the Republican candidates blunt one another’s advantages. If the typical GOP result in post-Obama administration-Louisiana amounts to winning an average of 55 percent of the vote, dividing the conservative electorate in four relatively equal ways amounts to each winning just 13.75 percent, or just what a low performing, well-financed Democrat can surpass, even in a crowded field.
Add millionaire elected GOP officials Skrmetta or Hollis to the Senate race, with bases in Metro New Orleans, and appeals to the center and Right respectively, and each GOPer might win just 10 percent.
The biggest “wild card” in this scenario remains former State Senator and Democrat-turned-Independent Troy Hebert. Just finishing a term in January as Jindal’s Alcohol & Tobacco Control Commissioner, Hebert announced his Senate bid — just before the public became aware that he was under FBI investigation for issuing a temporary operations permit to a New Orleans woman who had problems with a liquor license —allegedly in exchange for sexual favors.
Hebert had planned on an “Independent campaign” drawing Democrats and Republicans. However, his February 26 hearty endorsement of Donald Trump as the only presidential candidate “with guts” notched down Democratic enthusiasm for his candidacy.
Hebert, who styles himself as a John Georges-style crossover Independent, would likely only draw support from the GOP side of the vote, intensifying the Republicans’ challenge in earning a runoff slot in the 2016 Senate race. Under this scenario, even if two of the three Democrats win just 18 percent of the vote, both could earn runoff slots over their Republican rivals.
This article originally published in the May 9, 2016 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.
