Likeability matters!
12th August 2024 · 0 Comments
By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Columnist
The choice of “Minnesota Nice” Gov. Tim Walz seeks pro-positivity strategy against Donald Trump
A challenge was levied to a strong Trump supporter on the radio two weeks ago to sincerely say something nice about Kamala Harris. Unexpectedly, his response may explain why the Democratic and Republican Presidential candidates are tied in battleground states.
Thinking long and hard for several minutes on thefoundersshow.com radio broadcast, the Rev. Hy McEnery replied to the question, “She has a nice smile. I have thought so since I first became aware of her.”
As the socially conservative Baptist minister (who runs a charity working on behalf of troubled inner city kids in New Orleans) described, he meant his observation as a true compliment – without irony. McEnery was quick to say that in no way did he mean that statement pejoratively. From the very beginning, McEnery found Harris generally possessed of a positive countenance with a great smile, suggesting a friendly personality.
He still had plans to vote for Trump, McEnery noted, who had his ardent support as a “fighter.” Nevertheless, his comments provide a clue as to why national polls have tightened – as swing voters have gotten to know Harris in the weeks after President Biden‘s demurral. It is never a disadvantage for a presidential candidate to come off as a “Happy Warrior.”
That was the moniker applied to Vice President Hubert Humphrey when in 1968 he nearly overcame a grim two-time presidential candidate after his unpopular boss decided not to run for reelection. Positivity also stands as the main reason in the last few months of the 1980 campaign that Ronald Reagan prevailed over the somewhat gloomy incumbent Jimmy Carter. Undecided swing voters just liked Reagan more. A cheerful personality trumped policy weaknesses.
Three weeks ago, after Biden withdrew from the presidential race, veteran Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik remarked to columnist William Kristol that the period until the August Democratic convention would be crucial. Vice President Harris stood relatively undefined in the minds of many voters. Who would prevail in the fierce race to define her?
As Kristol noted last week, “We’re now halfway through those four weeks, and Harris is winning the race to define. She and her campaign have over-performed in almost every respect while Donald Trump and JD Vance have gotten in their own way – or simply reminded us who they really are.
“And Harris has gained ground. The polling team at UMass Amherst is releasing their latest national presidential survey this morning. It has Harris leading Trump nationally by three points, 46 percent to 43 percent – compared to a four point lead for Trump over Biden in their January poll. Not surprisingly, Harris does better on who would handle traditional Democratic issues like reproductive rights and health care, while Trump prevails on more traditional Republican issues. But Trump has only small margins on those issues – 53 percent to 47 percent in handling both crime and immigration, for example. The Trump campaign would certainly wish those margins to be much higher.”
However, the most important detail came when Kristol noted, “Similarly, Harris leads Trump on personal characteristics like honesty and likability, but keeps the contest closer than one might have expected on traits that might have been thought big winners for Trump, like strength (only 54 percent to 46 percent) and patriotism (only 52 percent to 48 percent). And by 57 percent to 43 percent, voters think that Harris is more moderate than Trump, an indicator that the effort to define Harris as radical isn’t working – so far.”
Other surveys have seen similarly tightening polls, both nationally and in the battlegrounds. Put simply: Likability matters. Arguably, Hillary Clinton lacked that factor with swing voters. In contrast, Joe Biden held the affection of independents, certainly in comparison to Donald Trump, and but for the vagaries of age, might have prevailed still.
From the perspective of positivity without disturbing the delicate balance of ideological base politics, Kamala Harris’ vice presidential pick of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to be her running mate makes sense. His very nickname is “Minnesota Nice.” He enjoys high approval ratings from his constituents in his critical battleground home state – a trust often credited as the reason Democrats regained control of the state legislature after years out of power.
Moreover, unlike his two rivals for the VP slot, Walz holds no ideological heresies for the Left which could divide the Democratic base. He is not a strong supporter of school vouchers in Pennsylvania or the Israeli campaign in Gaza like Josh Shapiro, nor does he stand hesitant to support a repeal of “Right to Work” like Mark Kelly seemed to indicate when the Arizona senator refused to sign on as a co-author of the PRO Act. Waltz actually tightened pro-unionization laws during his time in the Minnesota Governor’s office.
Nevertheless, Walz comes off as a very nice, likable, middle-of-the-road type of guy. He stands attitudinally as the polar opposite of the ideological warrior exemplified by Trump’s choice of JD Vance, and that explains Kamala Harris’ choice of him better than anything else.◊
