Low Black turnout doomed state democrats in 2023 runoff

By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Writer

There is an alternate reality where African-American turnout in 2023 Louisiana state elections matched that of 2019. In that alternate reality, Democrats Arthur Morrell and Gwen Collins-Greenup both managed to make the runoff for Secretary of State, providing a Democratic bright spot in an otherwise Republican night.

All it would have required was for Morrell to have the same African-American turnout in Jefferson, St. Bernard and Orleans (where the former Clerk of Court and his politician son are well-known) as in 2019. Morrell would have needed another 83,000 votes statewide to accomplish his goal, roughly the differential in African-American turnout in the metro area between the two elections.

Instead, on Saturday, November 18, 2023, GOP SOS 1st Assistant Nancy Landry achieved a crushing victory over Collins-Greenup, but with a turnout so low that it hardly seems like a statewide result – 446,038 to 221,698.

The attorney general’s race was equally dominated by the Republicans, with incumbent Solicitor General Liz Baker Murrill winning with 66 percent of the vote or 444,081 over Democrat Lindsay Cheek’s 34 percent or 225,011 votes. As was the LA Treasurer’s contest where former GOP Congressman John Fleming bested Democrat Dustin Granger 437,303 to 230,961 or 65 percent to 35 percent.

Republicans pretty much dominated every crossparty contest on Nov. 18. Even incumbents were not safe. Belle Chase Democratic Rep. Mack Cormier lost to Republican Jacob Braud 44 percent – 56 percent even though Cormier’s West Bank District possesses only at 27.5 percent Republican registration.

Pollster John Couvillon warned these results would come to pass week before the election, if African-American and Democratic turnout did not improve from early voting. In fact, it proved as underwhelming as it was in the primary. As he explained on Nov. 19, the day after the elections, “For those who think that overwhelming statewide Republican victories last night was ONLY made possible by lower turnout, I present to you the primary and runoff party percentages for each statewide race. To me, it’s quite clear the die was cast on October 14.”

Put another way, as Couvillon outlined to this newspaper, the 2023 runoff experienced an anemic 22.4 percent turnout, with an estimated 41 percent of the vote cast early. (The only bright spot of the election is that sum amounts to the second highest Early Vote percentage ever. It also finally puts the rest of the argument that early voting only benefits Democrats.)

More of interest was that estimated turnout in Caucasian precincts was 15 percent, whereas Black turnout amounted to just 10 percent. Consequently, Couvillon estimated the white/Black split was 73-23 percent (73-24% EV and 72-23 percent Election Day). As he noted, “The Early/Election Day vote wasn’t substantially different (it was basically ‘copy and pasted’ straight ticket voting): SOS (Landry): 67 percent overall, 66 percent EV, 67 percent Election Day. Atty Gen: (Murrill): 66 percent overall, 65 percent EV, 67 percent Election Day; and Treasurer (Fleming): 65 percent overall, 64.5 percent EV, 66 percent Election Day.”

However, as with the primary, there were some Black defections to the GOP. In seventy percent of African-American precincts, Nancy Landry and Liz Murrill received fourteen percent of the African African-American vote while John Fleming got fifteen percent.

In the La. House, the GOP picked up HD 85 (Westbank) in the primary and HD 105 (Cormier’s district in Plaquemines/parts of Jefferson and Orleans) in the runoff. The Republicans now enjoy a 73-32 supermajority in the House and a 28-11 supermajority in state Senate with the pick up of SD 19 in St Charles/Lafourche.

This article originally published in the November 27, 2023 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.