Low Black turnout harkens Democrat wipeout on Nov 18

By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Writer

With less than one week left until the November 18, 2023 runoff, Louisiana could be poised for a Republican sweep, without a heavier turnout of Democratic voters generally and African Americans going to the polls specifically.

In this, the Pelican State would more closely resemble Mississippi, where incumbent GOP Gov. Tate Reeves enjoyed an unexpectedly strong victory over Democrat Brandon Presley (52-46) last Tuesday, thanks to weaker than expected African-American voter participation. Reeves won all of the counties that he won four years ago with 55 percent of the vote, whereas Presley underperformed in traditionally Democratic counties. The Mississippi results stood in contrast to elections in Ohio, Virginia and Kentucky where Democratic constituencies turned-out heavily on Tuesday, November 7, expanding Ohio abortion rights, flipping the Virginia House of Delegates, and reelecting a Kentucky Democratic governor respectively.

In contrast, if the first weekend of early voting in Louisiana proves any indication, the La. Democrats might have a difficult time on the evening of November 18 – at least if nothing changes before Saturday. In the primary, Republicans already gained a supermajority in the La. state House, and Democrats have been trying to stop the same thing from happening in the La. state Senate in the runoff. Also, Democratic candidates are strongly contesting open seats for Louisiana attorney general, secretary of state and treasurer on Nov 18.

Some senior La. Democrats have revealed to The Louisiana Weekly, on background, that they fear even some previously safe legislative seats might be up for grabs if African-American voters continue a lower-than-hoped turnout in the runoff. In just one local example, last month, Belle Chasse incumbent Democratic Rep. Mack Cormier barely qualified for the runoff by less than 200 votes to face Republican Jacob Braud, who received 40 percent of the vote. This occurred despite the fact that House District 105 boasts of 44 percent Democratic registration and only 27.5 percent Republican.

Pollster John Couvillon of JMC Analytics pointed out to this newspaper that early voting statistics in the runoff continue to reveal weak Democratic turnout versus strong GOP enthusiasm. As he explained, on the first weekend of early voting, “Normally, Saturdays are the Democrats’ time to shine (in terms of volume/an elevated Democratic percentage). That largely didn’t happen. While the Black percentage DID increase from 19 percent Friday [Nov 3] to 25 percent [Saturday, Nov 4], that is still less than the 27 percent Black [voter participation] on Day 1’s evening for the 2023 primary. The partisan composition of [Saturday’s]’s EV was +8 Rep (46-38%). Overall turnout did drop compare to Friday, thanks to a drop in mail volume.”

“Cumulatively,” Couvillon continued, “75979 have voted early (54468 in person, 21511 mail). This cumulative[ly] created a new constituency of mail in voters not present before). The partisan makeup of EV as of [Saturday] remains MUCH more Republican than either the 2023 primary or the 2019 runoff. (I’ve NEVER seen a 48-36 percent GOP EV constituency before).”

JMC’s data strongly suggests, without a surge from the African-American electorate on election day itself, many Democrats may have to prepare themselves for a bad night when the final results come in at 8 p.m. November 18.

This article originally published in the November 13, 2023 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.