Luring the “woke” vote, a tale of two endorsements: Chambers and Williams

By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Writer

Perhaps the first indication that a major development was afoot in the 2nd Congressional District race came just after noon on Monday, March 29. Surrogates and representatives of the Troy Carter campaign sent out slews of emails indicating all of Gary Chambers Jr.’s supporters had transferred their allegiance to the West Bank Democratic state Senator in the runoff for the open U.S. House seat. Suspiciously absent from that list was Gary Chambers himself. The reason for the fervency of his campaign’s sudden online activity came about an hour later when the Baton Rouge progressive political activist endorsed his rival Karen Carter Peterson.

For the first time since qualifying, Troy Carter was put on the defensive. There seems to be some real indications that Carter Peterson, after experiencing a rather anemic primary turnout and barely edging into the runoff, had made some real headway in attracting progressive voters to her candidacy – particularly the white “woke” voters so prevalent in her senatorial district. Sources close the former La. Democratic Chairman now tells The Louisiana Weekly that her campaign’s internal polling shows a statistical tie between Carter and Carter Peterson – and that survey was in the field prior to Gary Chambers’ endorsement of the Uptown New Orleans Democratic state senator.

As this newspaper noted in its last edition, progressive Caucasians backed Chambers and proved the major reason why he almost broke past KCP into a runoff. In fact, the East Baton Rouge political activist came in third in his home parish, yet dominated in Orleans in precincts near the Mississippi River where more than 2/3 of the voters are white. As these neighborhoods constitute the “home turf” of Carter Peterson’s senatorial district, she logically might have an advantage in garnering this support in a runoff, especially where no more progressive standard-bearing remains to contest their votes. They’ve cast ballots for her in the past in her senatorial re-election bids, after all. JMC Analytics Pollster John Couvillon calls this electorate “the white ‘woke’ vote” that exists in New Orleans and almost nowhere else in the district. The last survey by the Louisiana secretary of state put the seat at 46 percent Black and 45 percent Caucasian, yet whites on this “sliver by the river” voted overwhelmingly for Joe Biden as the rest of Caucasian Louisiana went, on average, for Donald Trump.

Carter’s reputation of supporting progressive stances like a $15 minimum wage, Medicare-For-All, and the “framework” of the Green New Deal – whilst, like Cedric Richmond, enjoying good personal working relationships with Republican congressmen like Steve Scalise and Garrett Graves – carries less weight with these Caucasian voters than it might with the 10,000 to 15,600 Republicans who Couvillon expects will vote in the runoff. In theory, GOP voters alone could carry Carter to a runoff victory, if he also earned the same amount of support as he previously earned in the March 20, 2021, primary (36 percent or 34,402 votes).

While Carter likely has the advantage over his rival with Republicans, as the former La. Democratic Chairman remains deeply unpopular with conservatives, there exists a possibility that Republican turnout could further decline into the runoff, when contrasted by historic norms. With nothing else to speak of on the ballot, save a couple of municipal elections and a tax measure in South Kenner, many GOP voters might stay home. After all, Republican candidates went from earning just over 20 percent of the vote in the November election to 16.4 percent by March.

Carter must secure at least some of these hardcore progressives, particularly white Democrats in this overwhelmingly African-American district, to guarantee victory. He did make a good start last Thursday, however. Orleans Parish District Attorney Jason Williams endorsed Carter’s congressional bid. Williams won his December runoff largely on the strength of the progressive vote, Caucasian and African American, and his dismissal of numerous drug cases and split trial convictions since taking office has drawn national plaudits from Leftwing groups.

Up to last Thursday, Williams had been one of the few high-profile public officials yet to issue an endorsement in the race. Even though the 2nd Congressional District snakes from New Orleans up the Mississippi River to Baton Rouge, Orleans Parish voters still constitute the plurality of the electorate. The DA’s backing of Carter may have blunted the impact of the Gary Chambers nod to Carter Peterson – at least to a degree. Time is running out, though. Early voting runs Saturday, April 10 through Saturday, April 17 (excluding Sunday, April 11), from 8:30 a.m. to 6 p.m. The runoff election is on April 24.

Christopher Tidmore will discuss the 2nd District race in more detail on his radio show, Sunday 8-9 a.m. on WRNO 99.5 FM and Monday, Wednesday, & Friday from 8-9 a.m. on WSLA 93.9 FM/1560 AM. Archived at the www.foundersshow.com.

This article originally published in the April 5, 2021 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.