Masking Mayor Cantrell’s re-election challenge
4th October 2021 · 0 Comments
By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Columnist
On September 29, the Louisiana Republican State Central Committee released a scathing condemnation of New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell. Normally, that would be about as politically damaging as the French Green Party condemning the mayor of New Orleans.
Reflecting the GOP critiques, though, some of the same criticisms of the Democratic Mayor’s Covid policies – particularly her vaccine mandates – have come from part of her own core African-American constituency. (Blacks remain one of the most vaccine-skeptical ethnic groups in the nation, even in New Orleans despite Cantrell’s best efforts.) Moreover, weeks past after Hurricane Ida’s landfall, the city faces piles of uncollected trash on top of collapsing public services.
The combination of a state of decay in New Orleans – in addition to masking and vaccination mandates which grate upon the sensibilities of some of her most loyal voters – may have created a major political difficulty for the mayor. That does not mean Cantrell will be denied reelection this Autumn, as the mayor does not really face a strong, well-financed opponent in the bid for a second term. However, the discontent does signal that in the wake of Hurricane Ida, LaToya Cantrell‘s once unassailable political position has seriously eroded. At the very least, she likely will not receive the rubber stamp City Council that the mayor enjoyed in her first term.
Such vocal opposition has already presented itself in the open Council At-Large race, where former state Senator JP Morrell’s major criticism of his opponents has been their willingness to do Cantrell‘s bidding unquestioned. In the other at-Large race, where incumbent Helena Moreno seems to be running more for mayor herself four years from now than reelection to her current office, nevertheless, the recipient of most of the Council president‘s fire has been targeted at LaToya Cantrell rather than her opposition.
The Mayor posted a 62 percent approval rating as recently as July 2021. While polling data has been sparse in the post hurricane chaos, several political experts to whom The Louisiana Weekly spoke all agree that Cantrell has taken a hit since Ida. At least one political insider revealed to our editors that if qualifying had been reopened (as sometimes happens when elections are delayed), he was convinced that the mayor would have faced even more significant opposition. Cantrell is lucky, in other words, that Gov. John Bel Edwards simply opted to do no more than delay the primary election until November.
Still, even with token opponents, the current negative political environment challenges any hopes that the mayor’s staff once vocalized that Cantrell would win easily in the first primary – now rescheduled for November 13. In fact, the possibility exists that enough of a protest vote might manifest to push her into a runoff on December 11, 2021.
The grumbling occurs amidst the irony that LaToya Cantrell‘s gamble, to install one of the strongest vaccination mandates in the country, has largely been successful. Vaccination rates in Orleans (and neighboring Jefferson) stand at least 10 percentage points better than every other parish in the state. Only small West Feliciana Parish even comes close; most parishes rank far worse than the city.
In Orleans, 250,977 or 64.41 percent of the city’s 389,648 residents have received at least one dab of the vaccine. Perhaps implying that the vaccine mandate has had some spillover effects from Jefferson Parish residents wanting to eat, work, or play in Orleans, 268,998 or 61.80 percent of Jefferson’s 435,300 citizens have received at least one dosage of the vaccine.
In contrast, other than West Feliciana at 64 percent, most other parishes do not exceed 55 percent of the population having received one dose, and majority rank at barely 40 percent. Interestingly, in Vernon Parish, only 31.20 percent or 15,913 of its 51,007 residents have received any form of vaccination. That did not stop Republican State Central Committee member and native Leesville State Rep. Chuck Owen from passing a condemning resolution, where he declared, “While New Orleans might be bordered by the Mississippi River and Lake Pontchartrain, the city is not an island separated from the rest of the state and country concerning our sacred constitutional civil liberties…..tyranny is at our doorstep if this is happening in Louisiana.”
In the past month, there has been little that Mayor Cantrell could do to force private trash hauling companies like Metro to honor their contracts – except to remove and re-bid them. City Hall seems to be making moves in that direction, but trash remains piled up in front of homes. Even the Mayor’s use of city employees to pick up waste, in an early implementation of “Operation Mardi Gras,” has barely made a dent. Yet, in fairness, she lacks the personnel to pick up the trash on a daily basis.
Without billions of dollars from the stalled $1.5 Trillion Congressional infrastructure bill, there is not much she can do about the collapsing pipes of the Sewerage and Water Board. Modifying COVID-19 policies stand as her only area of political maneuver.
Perhaps the first sign that LaToya Cantrell recognizes that she has a polling problem was her authorization of the first parade in Orleans Parish since the dawn of the pandemic. “The Krewe of Boo” will march on the Saturday before Halloween, or just over a week before early voting commences. The mayor further signaled, as she approved the parade, that it might be the first of many, implying Mardi Gras will likely occur as scheduled.
From a standpoint of optics, it was the Governor – not the mayor – who extended the mask mandate to October 27. If he lifts it, and Cantrell goes along, people will be maskless (and without their major COVID-19 complaint) three days before the first early ballot is cast on October 30.
Christopher Tidmore will discuss Cantrell‘s reelection bid in more detail on his radio show, Sunday 8-9 a.m. on WRNO 99.5 FM and Monday, Wednesday, & Friday from 8-9 a.m. on WSLA 93.9 FM/1560 AM.
This article originally published in the October 4, 2021 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.
