The Black vote could decide Jefferson president and sheriff
21st August 2019 · 0 Comments
By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Writer
African-American turnout ties the fate of three Jefferson Parish races together. The potential for John Young to defeat Cynthia Lee-Sheng is partially predicated upon the strength of the bid which John Fortunato makes against his past rival Joe Lopinto — and even more particularly on whether turnout is high in a crowded Black-majority District 3 Council race, especially if regular African-American churchgoers opt to go to the polls in favor of Jedidiah Jackson.
Put another way, the senior leaders of Jefferson Parish for the next four years will likely be decided depending upon the strength of the surge of Black voters going to the polls, and whether the African-American electorate opts to cast a ballot for one Republican over another.
That is not to say that John Fortunato’s choice to seek a second bid against the incumbent Jefferson Sheriff will not drive the Caucasian electorate to the voting booths as well. If recent history proves any guide, their rematch may trigger an exciting and closely matched contest. One in which it hardly takes a leap of logic to conclude that many of Fortunato’s supporters will tend to lean more towards supporting Young than casting a ballot in favor of Lopinto’s close ally Lee-Sheng. They often share the same anti-establishment vote. As one campaign insider put it to this newspaper, “There’s no doubt that Johnny getting into the Sheriff’s race helps John.”
Moreover, Lee-Sheng and Lopinto do run on a defacto ticket, making it rather easy for their opponents to make their anti-establishment case in a way that would usually be denied to a former parish president and retired JPSO Colonel. It is far from uncommon to see Lopinto’s sign crews putting up placards for both the current sheriff and the daughter of the past sheriff. While the councilwoman and the JPSO chief each runs his or her own race, the strong coordination by the campaigns of the two candidates links them in the public consciousness. Lopinto is the hand-picked successor of Newell Normand, after all, who also first encouraged the daughter of his mentor to run for the parish council, and served as her campaign manager whilst still sheriff himself. There are logistical benefits to a political ticket, yet the old adage that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” applies in political races as well. White Fortunato voters who might have stayed home if the veteran cop had not tried for a second bid are highly unlikely to vote for the Councilwoman topping Lopinto’s ticket. Unofficial that alliance may be, but it’s a partnership hardly unknown to the general electorate.
Regardless, every poll puts the parish president’s race into a one percent dead heat between Young and Lee-Sheng. The data seems to suggest that nostalgia for her father (along with satisfaction with her own record in office) gives the Councilwoman a slight advantage with Caucasians, but the former parish president enjoys a commanding lead in the African-American community. Nostalgia works both ways as well, and Black voters in Jefferson rarely have the most positive memories of Harry Lee.
That leads to two questions: will African Americans turnout to the polls on October 13, and will they opt to vote in an all-Republican contest, or just skip that choice and proceed down the ballot? At least when it comes to the parish president’s race, the answer may depend upon the strength of at least one down-ticket council candidate.
There is little doubt that John Bel Edwards’ bid for re-election to the governorship will have an effect on Black turnout. An incumbent Democratic gubernatorial candidate advertising heavily against an equally funded, Trump-backing Eddie Rispone constitutes the perfect combination to motivate African Americans to visit the polling stations on election day. Edwards will undoubtedly make it clear — with copious TV ads — that only a strong Black turnout gives a Democrat a chance in such a “Red State,” and even if the more moderate GOP Congressman Ralph Abraham makes the runoff, the mere presence of Rispone in the primary, running ads touting his Trump bumper-sticker, proves a wonderful motivator.
Nevertheless, more parochial concerns may drive African Americans in the Jefferson to the polls on October 13. Eleven candidates contend to fill the open District 3, Minority-Majority seat, on the Jefferson Parish Council. (So many contenders for the District 3 seat showed up at a community event in Woodmere two weeks ago that the room was reduced to laughter when they heard the one white guy present stand up and say, “I’m John Young and I’M NOT running for Council District 3.” )
Some of the best known Black politicians in Jefferson Parish fight for this council seat. The former incumbent Byron Lee runs, as does his predecessor in the District 3 seat Council Donald Jones, as well as former Kenner Councilman Gregory Carroll, former State Senator Derrick Shepherd, and former school board member Cedric Floyd. However, the contest’s wildcard remains former Jefferson Community Action Program Director Jedidiah Jackson. The son of prominent New Orleans clergyman Rev. Robert Jackson, he is also a minister as well as a former congressional staffer with a degree in social work, who most importantly has run one of Jefferson Parish’s most critical agencies for helping alleviate poverty for the last six years.
Not surprisingly, most of the Black ministerial community has lined up behind Jedidiah Jackson, and if he can get the rank-and-file Church members in the pews to go to the polls, he has a major shot at the runoff. Normally, Jackson would be at a disadvantage against any well-known establishment politician; however, with several in the contest, the “name-recognition” vote has divided. Add a surge in the religious electorate in his favor, and Jackson stands as a serious contender.
The impact of his candidacy helps Young as well. The former parish president not only employed one of the most diverse and inclusive staff of any administration in the history of Jefferson (including initially hiring Jackson), but he has maintained a good relationship with the ministerial community in his own right. Young is a well-known visitor to many local Black churches, and far more likely to earn these votes than Lee-Sheng, a relative unknown in these circles—at best.
Nevertheless, all too often, when confronted with a contest in the voting booth where no Democrat contends, many African-American voters simply skip that choice. Evidence is antidotal, yet there is a compelling argument that religiously-motivated voters are the exception to this trend. Black churches historically are the foundation of the Civil Rights movement, and parishioners tend to take the view that a vote constitutes a sacred act. To just not make a choice hardly seems like fulfilling their Christian responsibility, churchgoers often contend.
Notably, it would only take a slight surge in support from the African-American community to push Young over the top, so close is the 2019 parish presidential race. It might also be enough to flip the results of the last Sheriff’s race. In the 2018 Special Election, Fortunato only lost 48 percent to Lopinto’s 52 percent, yet Black turnout proved very poor in that contest. Fortunato had made a major play for the Black vote then, and he plans to this time by all accounts. A strong African-American turnout in his favor could flip the script. And, as Mike Yenni chose not to run, the liability of the support of the sex-scandal plagued parish presidential incumbent may prove less of a drag on Fortunato than it did just over a year ago.
Still, Fortunato lacks the long-term relationships in the Black community that Young has enjoyed during his past terms on the Parish Council and in the presidential office. Moreover, Joe Lopinto is not the daughter of Harry Lee. Efforts to tarnish him stretch only so far. The current sheriff has his own loud supporters in the Black community, partially due to the fact that Lopinto has made great strides during his brief tenure in reforming racial attitudes amongst the JPSO rank and file. His public relations out-reach to the African-American electorate, and his vast improvements in training and procedure for Jefferson sheriff’s deputies have shown real improvement to a police department that once struggled — at best — with a highly negative reputation in the Black community. He has also actively sought to promote and hire more African-American cops.
Those strides may help the Jeff Sheriff overcome John Fortunato for a second time in as many years, but his improved reputation may not transfer very easily to Cynthia Lee-Shang, ticket or no, at least as the parish president’s race currently stands.
This article originally published in the August 19, 2019 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.
