Top 10 Louisiana political stories of 2014

29th December 2014   ·   0 Comments

By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Writer

1. Mitch Landrieu won reelection as Mayor, but African-Americans reclaimed significant offices in Orleans, from judgeships to council seats. Even the legendary Jackie Clarkson could not maintain her historic strength with African-American women in District C against a female Black contender.

Even low turnout elections like December 6 runoff where Cauca­sian Democratic candidates would usually have an advantage in Orleans judicial races proved no respite. First rate contenders like Janet Ahern could not beat qualified African-American standardbearers like Monique Barial. That has implications as to the race of—and race for—the next Mayor of New Orleans.

2. Anti-Obama GOP politics impacted state and regional elections that had literally nothing to do with federal politics.

“All politics is now national,” to turn Tip O’Neill’s political maxim on its head. By all political indicators, Eric Skrmetta should have lost reelection to the Public Service Commission. As an incumbent who trailed in the primary to an attractive well-financed opponent of the same party, the math should have ensured Forest Wright a runoff victory. Yet by tying him to his Democratic past and Wright’s one time advocacy of Barack Obama, Skrmetta was able to channel the electorate’s anti-Obama anger into a narrow 51 percent victory.

3. The death of the moderate Democrat (outside of municipal-urban politics in Louisiana) was finally confirmed by Mary Landrieu’s defeat. The 30 percent of white voters who backed the incumbent Democratic Senator 2008 fell to just 18% on December 6, 2015. And there is considerable evidence that this some is not the floor for Louisiana progressive Democrats. Even John Breaux who sided with the GOP over 85% during his tenure in the U.S. Senate would have had extreme trouble earning reelection in the current political environment.

4. The rise of Black Republicans has arrived in the Pelican State. South Carolina has U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, Utah has Cong. Mia Love, and Louisiana has State Sen. Elbert Guillory. The Opelousas Democrat’s switch to the GOP was not as ideologically surprising to his legislative colleagues as it was to the general public. Guillory was a longtime supporter of LABI initiatives and fiscally conservative policies.

However, in switching to the Republicans, Guillory also played a major role in the defeat of Mary Landrieu. Consequently, he has become a favorite of the Tea Party, and a legitimate contender to be the first African-American Lieutenant Governor since PBS Pinchback. Whether Louisiana will follow the trend of other southern states with the White electorate embracing a conservative Republican African-American remains to be seen. Black voters remain skeptical, though. Guillory has enjoyed very little African-American support since his switch to the GOP.

5. In 2016, Louisiana may decide the next Republican presidential nominee thanks to a decision made by the Republican State Central committee early this year. By scheduling a primary on the first possible Saturday allowed by the RNC, The Pelican State will provide the first chance for the voters to have their say after Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Louisiana’s ability to crown the GOP frontrunner prior to Super Tuesday may focus the country on issues important to Republicans here, and not elsewhere, such as coastal erosion.

6. Jefferson Parish is finally and firmly in the GOP column. Mary Landrieu’s 47 percent result in the December 6 election was the first time the New Orleans native had ever lost the city’s largest suburb, and with it, the largest concentration of swing voters in the metro area.

Voting for the native son or daughter usually trumped partisan label, even as the area trended Republican in many other contests. Not only had both Landrieus won Jefferson in each of their statewide bids, but as recently as 2007, Democrats like Aaron Broussard and Harry Lee still dominated parish politics.

But they are swing voters no more. Mary Landrieu’s defeat in Jefferson suggests the chance of a Democrat winning parishwide in the future to be something of a fantasy, reflecting other statewide trends amongst whites of voting a straight Republican ticket, and making Democratic chances for statewide office in 2015 highly problematic.

7. Yet, the state Democratic Party refuses to die. House Democratic leader John Bel Edwards bought billboards all across the state of Louisiana trumpeting his campaign for governor. Many of his fellow Democrats, including many prominent members of the Legislative Black Caucus have privately queried if Edwards is making a mistake by standing for the Governor’s Mansion.

The argument goes that with Republicans so dominant state­wide, the Louisiana Democratic Party might be better suited to play ‘kingmaker’ between the various GOP contenders. In other words, making the difference for more moderately conservative Republicans like Jay Dardenne or John Young with whom Democrats in the legislature have the chance to do business. So far, such contentions have not swayed either Edwards or his core democratic supporters from mounting a gubernatorial campaign. Nor they change the minds of the party’s standard-bearers running for statewide offices.

8. The anti ‘common core’ alliance may prove the strangest, most enduring, and most consequential, political development of 2014. The anti RSD–left joined with Tea Party activists to attack, undermine, and stop the new federal educational standards. It put Pres. Obama and Jeb Bush on the same side against activists in both parties.

Moreover, the calls for ‘local control’ convinced some Metro area Republicans to join the effort to return schools to the purview of the OPSB, and at least some African-American Democrats to question the role of a federal Department of Education in local public schools. It’s a potential cross-party, biracial alliance that promises to fight both state and federal influence in local school districts. And it’s a headache for charter school reformers in both political parties.

9. LA Medicaid expansion may come by 2016. Whereas no Republican dared to endorse any part of the Affordable Care Act in 2013, that ideologically resolute stance weakened this year amidst massive hospital budget cuts. A few statewide GOP contenders are breaking with Gov. Bobby Jindal and taking a page out of the governance manual of Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

Oppose ‘Obamacare’ but accept the Medicaid dollars allocated in the ACA. From gubernatorial aspirant Lieut. Gov. Jay Dardenne to many others running for down ticket statewide and legislative races, there seems to be a growing belief amongst these Republicans that the ACA’s coverage of those earning up to 121 percent of the poverty level seems an easy way to plug the holes in Louisiana’s beleaguered, and often subject to cuts, public hospital system. And there’s a real chance of seeing legislative movement after the 2015 elections.

10. Acadiana is no longer decider of statewide elections. The title has passed to the Greater Baton Rouge metro. Cassidy’s ability to hold down the pro Landrieu vote in East Baton Rouge Parish would have ensured him the election even if the incumbent Senator had reached her historic majorities in the New Orleans metro and Acadiana. That constitutes a sea-change in influence for the capital city, and a ‘Red Stick’ strategy could prove the saving grace for Jay Dardenne and Kip Holden next year.

This article originally published in the December 29, 2014 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.