Vitter hopes for Kentucky upset on Nov. 21
16th November 2015 · 0 Comments
By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Writer
As the U.S. Senator’s gubernatorial polls have plummeted, partisans of David Vitter have replied with two words, “Matt Bevin.” The Republican candidate for Governor of Kentucky only won his GOP primary by only 83 votes, and polls showed him trailing Democrat Jack Conway by two points, yet on Nov. 4th, Bevin prevailed 53% to 44%.
In the end, the fact that Bevin was a Republican mattered a great deal more in his Red State than his lackluster campaign. David Vitter seemingly hopes for a similar surprise on November 21 in Louisiana, but he faces much higher deficit to overcome.
The closest poll between the two La. Gubernatorial candidates, conducted by Triumph Campaigns, finds Democrat John Bel Edwards leading Vitter, 49% to 41%. More worrisome for the Senator is that the drag on the ticket is he, not some residual post-Jindal anger at the GOP.
Triumph posed a straight-up generic matchup and found “the Republican candidate” leading “the Democrat” 45-40. Put in Vitter’s name, and the results flipped. As the liberal website Daily Kos noted, “[T]hat tells you that the antipathy toward Vitter is personal and real. They also included numbers on the lieutenant governor’s race, where Republican Billy Nungesser leads his barely-known Democratic opponent, Kip Holden, 49-38. Other surveys have put Holden on top, but Triumph’s numbers seem a lot more plausible, thus lending further credence to their gubernatorial results.”
Vitter accused his Democratic opponent of potentially denying 170,000 schoolchildren vouchers to send them to private or parochial schools. The Senator contended that Edwards’ campaign plank—that the scholarships should only go to students in school districts that receive a “D” or “F” grade, rather than children who attend “D” or “F” rated schools—would result in “trapping” poor kids in failing schools. It was a heartstring moment for GOP voters. Vitter was saying that “You might not like me, but you like my Republican school policies. So, Republicans, come home to vote for me.”
Vitter took much the same tactic at Baton Rouge’s Southern University the next day, where the Republican charged that Edwards’ proposal to shift 5,500 non-violent offenders out of prison into diversion programs threatened public safety. The U.S. Senator made the charge before a predominantly Black crowd, but it was a soundbite intended for the GOP faithful that could also impact swing voters.
At the LBP Debate, Edwards likewise tried to play on GOP antipathy to Vitter by bringing up his campaign’s decision to hire private investigators and making references to the Senator’s habit of “Hitting below the belt,” a double entendre if ever there was one.
If one wants to understand Edwards’ ad charging “David Vitter Chose Prostitutes over Patriots” and the commercial’s high-profile airing during the LSU-Alabama game, understand it is born of worries over a “Matt Bevin scenario” as well. Campaigns confident of the surety of victory do not risk a potential backlash with such a hard-hitting ad. Claiming that the U.S. Senator missed a key vote honoring 28 soldiers killed by an Iraqi Scud missile to visit a sexworker is meant to be a knockout punch. Meet the Press’ Chuck Todd called the ad, “the most vicious political ad EVER…and potentially the most devastating.”
At some level the Edwards campaign also must believe the election is far closer than either Triumph—or the four polls that average the Democratic candidate some 16 points ahead—suggest. As Daily Kos observed, “Triumph didn’t poll the primary with great accuracy. Their final poll had Edwards leading Vitter 37-27, with Dardenne at 15 and Angelle at 10. So while they were fairly close to Edwards’ final 40 percent tally, they failed to capture how close Angelle was to Vitter (he finished just 4 points back), and incorrectly pegged Dardenne for third.”
Still, the other recent surveys suggest that Edwards and the Democrats have less to worry about. Market Research Insight’s poll (in the field October 27-28) puts Edwards victorious over Vitter by margins far beyond those Conway bested Bevin before the Kentucky election, 52% to 32% with 16% undecided. Anzalone Liszt Grove (conducted October 26-28) showed Edwards leading Vitter 52% to 40% with 7% undecided. JMC Analytics (surveyed Oct 28-31) puts him 52% to 32% with 16% undecided.
These polls pale before the most recent survey from the University of New Orleans (in the field Nov. 2-8) showing Edwards leading Vitter by 22 points, 56% to 34%.
“One surprising finding is the support for Edwards among White respondents who have tended to support Republican candidates in the recent past,” said UNO Political Scientist Dr. Ed Chervenak. Forty-two percent of white voters surveyed report they are going to vote for the Democrat, John Bel Edwards. Nearly one-half of voters who cast a ballot for Scott Angelle or Jay Dardenne plan on voting for Edwards in the Nov. 21 runoff.
Moreover, Vitter may have run out of time to turn things around. Early voting started on Nov. 7 and Republican turnout has been anemic. On the first day turnout was 12% higher than it was in the first day of the primary (it was 42,131 yesterday and 37,611 in the primary). It was also somewhat more Democratic, JMC Analytics noted, “The racial composition… was 68-30% White/Black (it was 69-29% White/Black after the first day of the 2015 primary). To put these numbers in proper perspective, the Louisiana electorate as of 11/1/2015 was 66-31% white/Black.”
“For additional perspective (which is why we said ‘somewhat Democratic’): while Black turnout was up relative to the primary (white turnout was up 11%, Black turnout was up 13%, and Asian/Hispanic turnout was up 45%), Republican turnout was up as well: 16% more Republicans voted yesterday than on the first day of the primary. And the partisan composition of [Saturday’s] early voting was 51-35% Democratic/Republi-can, which is a bit more Republican than the 52-34% Democrat/Repub-lican figure from the first day of the primary early voting.”
However, damaging GOP hopes, the Demo-leaning cities are voting. JMC continued, “First day early voting increased in 23 parishes and decreased in 41 parishes relative to the primary. And the 23 parishes where early voting increased were generally urban parishes, with some of these urban parishes’ seeing spectacular increases in turnout: 85% increase in East Baton Rouge Parish, 74% in Orleans, 68% in Ascension, 38% in Jefferson, and 34% in Caddo.”
“If we look at the primary vote of the parishes that saw increases and decreases in their turnout, the parishes that saw an increase in their early voting voted 42-24% for Edwards over Vitter, while the parishes that saw a decrease in their early voting voted 35-22% for Edwards over Vitter. In other words, Edwards gets a mild benefit from [Saturday’s] increased early-voting turnout.”
It got worse for Vitter by Veterans Day. The early voting electorate grew even more Democratic. As JMC Analytics noted, “The racial composition of the early voters after three days was 69-29% White/Black – after three days in the primary, it was 72-26% White/Black. To put these numbers in proper perspective, the Louisiana electorate as of 11/1/2015 was 66-31% white/Black.”
“To further illustrate the Democratic tilt of early voting, let’s look at the raw numbers: after three days, white turnout is up 30% relative to the primary, while 47% more Blacks have voted, and 55% more Asians/Hispanics have. From a partisan perspective, this is additional confirmation that Democrats are more energized: 37% more Democrats (vs 34% of Republicans and 32% of Independents) have early voted. And the early vote thus far is 52-35% Democrat/Republican, while it was 51-35% in the primary.”
And the trend in the (Democratic) leaning cities continued. “The larger parishes are early voting heavily – After three days, early voting has increased in 41 parishes and decreased in 23 parishes relative to the primary. Furthermore, the 41 parishes where early voting increased were generally urban parishes, and some of these urban parishes have seen spectacular increases in turnout: 109% increase in Caddo, 98% in Orleans, 89% in Bossier, 80% in East Baton Rouge, 68% in Ascension, 66% in Calcasieu, and 65% in St. Tammany.”
“If we look at the primary vote of the parishes that saw increases and decreases in their turnout, the parishes that saw an increase in their early voting voted 41-23% for Edwards over Vitter, while the parishes that saw a decrease in their early voting voted 36-21% for Edwards over Vitter. In other words, Edwards gets a mild benefit from the spike in early voting.”
JMC’s “bottom line” stated, “What do the cumulative three day numbers tell us about projected voter turnout? While our predictions will be more accurate as we accumulate more early voting data throughout the week (in person early voting runs from November 7-14), we do know that in the primary, a record 21% of Louisianians voted early. Assuming a 21% early vote in the runoff, the early vote numbers thus far suggest a 45-50% runoff turnout (it was 39% in the primary).”
In a real reversal, showing his growing strength, the Democrat is winning the money race against the Republican. For the first time, Edwards is out fundraising Vitter, having collected $1.5 million since Nov. 2. Vitter, during the same period, reported $130,000 in contributions during the special reporting period. He also received $57,994.02 of in-kind contributions to pay for travel, direct mail and accounting services.
Plus, Vitter faces what might be the perfect storm for any GOP gubernatorial contender. There may be in trouble in uber Republican St. Tammany Parish, a must win. According to WWL-TV investigative reporter David Hammer and Van-ishing Earth, an environmental blog by Jonathan Henderson of New Orleans, Vitter forcefully advocated on behalf of Helis Oil and Gas Co. in St. Tammany parish’s fracking controversy.
Helis’ desire to drill near a residential community has divided the parish into warring camps, and those that support drilling have earned the eternal antipathy of homeowners—partisan loyalties aside. Hammer and Henderson exposed Vitter’s April 16 letter threatening two top Army Corps of Engineers officials with the senator’s opposition to “the transition or promotion of new leadership” unless the Corps green-lighted a list of projects including Helis’ proposed horizontal fracking.
Less than a month later, on May 8, Helis Oil and Gas contributed $5,000 to Vitter’s campaign, as did Helis CEO David Kerstein. In June, the Corps issued the permit.
Currently, the residents are fighting in court, but the manner in which Vitter engaged the controversy has had surrogates of Edwards working those communities to fire up homeowner anger against the U.S. Senator. And, this normally GOP electorate does not have to actually vote for Edwards for the Democrat to win. If 50% of the voters that supported Republicans Scott Angelle and Jay Dardenne in the primary, or 190,000 voters, stay home, and Edwards gets his supporters to the polls, Vitter has no statistical path to making up the deficit in the runoff.
However, as Matt Bevin proved, being behind in the polls does not translate into defeat. Election-day turnout was just 31% in Kentucky, and low election day turnout tends to favor Republican candidates, regardless of their campaign.
This article originally published in the November 16, 2015 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.
